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Optimal Monetary Policy and Uncertainty Shocks

Author

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  • Cho, Deaha
  • Han, Yoonshin
  • Oh, Joonseok
  • Rogantini Picco, Anna

Abstract

We study optimal monetary policy in response to uncertainty shocks in standard New Keynesian models under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing schemes. We find that optimal monetary policy achieves joint stabilization of inflation and the output gap in both pricing schemes. We show that a simple Taylor rule that puts high weight on inflation stability approximates optimal monetary policy well. This rule mutes firms’ precautionary pricing incentive, the key channel that makes responses under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing schemes differ under the empirically calibrated Taylor rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Deaha & Han, Yoonshin & Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Uncertainty Shocks," Dynare Working Papers 61, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2016. "The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 283-297.
    2. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
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    5. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    6. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    7. Martin M Andreasen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2018. "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 1-49.
    8. Miao, Jianjun & Ngo, Phuong V., 2021. "Does Calvo Meet Rotemberg At The Zero Lower Bound?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 1090-1111, June.
    9. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    10. Lombardo, Giovanni & Vestin, David, 2008. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg-pricing assumptions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 275-279, August.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    12. OH, Joonseok, 2019. "The propagation of uncertainty shocks : Rotemberg vs. Calvo," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/01, European University Institute.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 548-584, February.
    3. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Born, Benjamin & Dovern, Jonas & Enders, Zeno, 2023. "Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Seung Yong Yoo, 2023. "Heterogeneity in the Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Labor Market Dynamics and Extensive vs. Intensive Margins of Adjustment," Working papers 2023rwp-222, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    6. Xuefan, Pan, 2023. "Analysing the response of U.S. financial market to the Federal Open Market Committee statements and minutes based on computational linguistic approaches," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 43, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    7. Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Levy, Jeffrey A., 2022. "State-level economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 81-99.
    8. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2022. "Data revisions and the effects of monetary policy volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," International Finance Discussion Papers 1383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Larsen, Vegard H., 2023. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; Uncertainty shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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