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Crecimiento económico y desempleo: Retos a largo plazo

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio SANTAMARIA SALAMANCA
  • Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO
  • Gustavo HERNANDEZ DIAZ
  • Norberto ROJAS DELGADILLO

Abstract

Uno de los objetivos de la política económica de mayor relevancia en los próximos anos es aprovechar las oportunidades internas y externas que tendrá el país. No obstante, la evidencia muestra que la economía colombiana no ha podido superar de manera sostenida niveles de crecimiento por encima del 4.5%. Al mismo tiempo que se presentan niveles de desempleo por encima de dos dígitos. Este trabajo presenta estimaciones por medio de diferentes metodologías del crecimiento económico potencial y de la tasa natural de desempleo. Se encuentra que el PIB potencial de la actualidad se ubica entre un 4.3 y 4.5% al ano, y la tasa natural de desempleo actual está alrededor de 10.5%. Estas cifras contrastan con las necesidades que en materia social se requieren para conducir al país por una senda de progreso económico y social. De tal manera se han identificado las limitaciones al crecimiento en diferentes áreas, los desafíos que se enfrentan y presentamos la cuantificación del impacto sobre el crecimiento económico de largo plazo, el desempleo y la pobreza, si se logran superar.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio SANTAMARIA SALAMANCA & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO & Gustavo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Norberto ROJAS DELGADILLO, 2013. "Crecimiento económico y desempleo: Retos a largo plazo," Archivos de Economía 11202, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:011202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Producto potencial; Tasa de desempleo; Tasa natural de desempleo; Brecha de producto; Modelos de estado espacio; Equilibrio general;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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