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El Impacto Del Tratado Del Libre Comercio Con Estados Unidos (Tlc) En La Balanza De Pagos Hasta 2010

Author

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  • Jorge Toro
  • Gloria Alonso
  • Pilar Esguerra
  • Daira Garrido

Abstract

Este trabajo evalúa el posible impacto del Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos sobre los principales rubros de la balanza de pagos, para el período 2007 - 2010. Para la estimación de los efectos del TLC sobre el comercio de bienes se utilizó un Modelo Multisectorial de Equilibrio General. Adicionalmente, se usaron otros métodos de proyección para las cuentas de servicios y para la inversión extranjera directa (IED). Los resultados muestran que el TLC generaría un aumento del comercio total de Colombia de más de tres puntos del PIB, y un aumento de la IED superior a US$2.300 millones. Puesto que estas proyecciones se circunscriben a un horizonte de tiempo específico, la evaluación de dicho impacto es parcial y posiblemente subestima el efecto total del acuerdo. Por una parte, no se tiene en cuenta el posible surgimiento de nuevas actividades de exportación o importación. Por otro lado, el cálculo de los flujos de IED inducidos por la firma del tratado son conservadores de acuerdo a la experiencia de otros países que han firmado tratados comerciales similares.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Toro & Gloria Alonso & Pilar Esguerra & Daira Garrido, 2006. "El Impacto Del Tratado Del Libre Comercio Con Estados Unidos (Tlc) En La Balanza De Pagos Hasta 2010," Borradores de Economia 2511, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002511
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    4. Ramirez, Miguel D., 2003. "Mexico under NAFTA: a critical assessment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 863-892.
    5. Maloney, William & Lederman, Daniel & Servén, Luis, 2005. "Lessons from NAFTA: For Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 345, March.
    6. Nicita, Alessandro, 2004. "Who benefited from trade liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the effects on household welfare," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3265, The World Bank.
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    1. E.A. Haddad & J. Bonet & G.J.D. Hewings & F.S. Perobelli, 2009. "Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 699-732, November.

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