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Anti-Poverty Programs and Presidential Election Outcomes: Familias en Acción in Colombia

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  • Oskar Nupia

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Abstract

Using a comprehensive data set for Colombian municipalities between 2002 and 2010, in this paper we study the effects of large anti-poverty programs on presidential election outcomes. In particular, we test for two of the main assumptions on voters´ behavior adopted by the political economics literature. First, we examine whether the incumbent governing coalition has been politically rewarded due to the expansion exhibited by the program during the last decade. Second, we test whether voters have been willing to tradeoff their ideological attachments in exchange of a higher level of income - obtained through the cash transfer payments provided by the program. Our estimates correct for potential simultaneity problems previously identified by the literature in this field. Our results provide empirical support for both hypotheses and open the discussion on how to prevent the use of large anti-poverty programs for political purposes.

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File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/dcede2011-14.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 008743.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 21 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000089:008743

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Keywords: voting; presidential elections; anti-poverty programs; electoral rewards; Colombia.;

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  1. Albert Sole-Olle & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2008. "Does partisan alignment affect the electoral reward of intergovernmental transfers?," Working Papers in Economics 206, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
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Cited by:
  1. Labonne, Julien, 2013. "The local electoral impacts of conditional cash transfers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 73-88.
  2. Javier E. Baez & Adriana Camacho & Emily Conover & Román A. Zárate, 2012. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Political Participation, and Voting Behavior," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 010312, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  3. Monica Ospina Londoño & Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, 2013. "Social Assistance and Informality: Examining the link in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010933, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
  4. Julien Labonne, 2012. "The local electoral impacts of conditional cash transfers: Evidence from a field experiment," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  5. Julien Labonne, 2012. "The local electoral impacts of conditional cash transfers Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2012-09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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