Who Borrows and Who May Not Repay?
AbstractIn this paper we use Household Budget Survey data to analyze the evolution of the household credit market in the Czech Republic over the period 2000â€“2008. While the share of households that borrow remained stable and below 40%, the amount of debt outstanding increased. We estimate a series of models of the determinants of borrowing. We next merge our data with the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions in 2005â€“2008, which contain direct information on repayment behavior, in order to test the validity of the standard debt burden measure as a predictor of default. We propose an alternative indicator â€“ the adjusted debt burden (ADB), defined as the ratio of loan repayments to discretionary income, constructed as net income minus the living minimum (the minimum cost of living for a given household composition as set by the Czech Statistical Office), which turns out to be a superior predictor of default risk. Limited by the data, we use a fairly broad concept of default, namely, the inability to make loan repayments on time. Based on the distribution of default risk across the levels of the adjusted debt burden, we suggest that a 30% ADB threshold should be used as the definition of overindebtedness, with an average default risk of 17%. Finally, we show that overindebtedness and local economic shocks are closely related, suggesting that default risk should be always considered in the context of regional economic conditions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2010/10.
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
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Debt burden; household credit; regional default risk; repayment.;
Other versions of this item:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- R29 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-06-18 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2011-06-18 (Risk Management)
- NEP-TRA-2011-06-18 (Transition Economics)
- NEP-URE-2011-06-18 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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