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Le bilan des particuliers au Canada : évolution et analyse

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  • Maxime Desmarais-Tremblay
  • François Vaillancourt

Abstract

Ce rapport étudie l'évolution du bilan, soit l'actif et le passif, des particuliers et entreprises individuelles au Canada depuis 1961. Il est pertinent de faire une telle analyse étant donné les changements culturels et réglementaires, qui ont créé un accès privilégié au crédit et donc contribué à l'endettement, et l'innovation financière. Le premier constat est que la valeur nette agrégée (différence entre les actifs et les passifs) et par personne du bilan comptable des particuliers au Canada a connu une croissance ininterrompue depuis 1961. Cette croissance est provenue moins de l'acquisition de nouveaux actifs (épargne active) que de l'augmentation de la valeur des résidences et des bonnes performances boursières (épargne passive). Cette augmentation de richesse a aussi contribué à une hausse de la consommation et à une baisse du taux d'épargne active depuis 20 ans. La croissance des actifs a cependant été moins rapide que celle de l'endettement. Ce qui amène à un autre constat, soit le niveau élevé et l'augmentation de l'endettement des ménages, essentiellement sous forme de crédit à la consommation et d'hypothèques. Ainsi, le solde moyen des marges de crédit a augmenté de 230 %. Cela s'explique par une hausse de 77 % des ménages ayant une dette sur marge de crédit, notamment grâce à la multiplication des marges de crédit adossées à des actifs immobiliers. Si les Canadiens veulent maintenir à long terme le même niveau de valeur nette, ils devront diminuer leur taux d'endettement. Les auteurs montrent aussi que la crise économique de 2008 a eu peu d'impact sur le bilan des ménages ou la consommation, mais qu'elle a quand même eu comme effet de légèrement hausser le taux d'épargne. Pour mieux comprendre et prédire le lien entre valeur nette, endettement et épargne, les auteurs recommandent de mieux (i) mesurer l'évolution du marché immobilier (p. ex. les prix) au Canada et, en particulier, son impact sur le reste de l'économie; (ii) évaluer l'ampleur, les causes
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Suggested Citation

  • Maxime Desmarais-Tremblay & François Vaillancourt, 2011. "Le bilan des particuliers au Canada : évolution et analyse," CIRANO Project Reports 2011rp-17, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirpro:2011rp-17
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