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Determinants of Non-Mining Exports: A Regional Perspective

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  • Mabel Cabezas B.
  • Jorge Selaive C.
  • Gonzalo Becerra M.

Abstract

The Chilean non-mining export sector has experienced a substantial increase over the last years, although exports to the main regions have evolved with different patterns. This work analyzes the role of the real exchange rate and world economic activity during the 1990-2001 period, after performing an extensive refinement and cleaning of export bundles by region. Based on a multivariate cointegration analysis, we find different effects of the real exchange rate and world output on the exported quantum. The long-run elasticity of the real exchange rate goes from 0.2 to 0.8 percent for Europe, Asia and United States, and it is non significant for Aladi countries, for which a lower effect of this latter variable is found as a determinant of regional exports. On the other hand, elasticity with respect to world output ranges between 2.3 and 4 percent for the United States, and between 1.2 and 2 percent for the other regions. A panel analysis supports the view that world output plays a significant role,while the real exchange rate is less important. Finally, our preliminary evidence suggests that foreign country tariff reductions may increase regional exports.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 296.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:296

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  1. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1999. "Long-run purchasing power parity with short-run data: evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 751-768, October.
  2. Graciela Moguillansky & Daniel Titelman, 1993. "Estimación econométrica de funciones de exportación en Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 20(1 Year 19), pages 153-190, June.
  3. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "Exportaciones No Tradicionales En Colombia Y Sus Determinantes," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  10. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-66, April.
  11. Papell, David H & Theodoridis, Hristos, 2001. "The Choice of Numeraire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 790-803, August.
  12. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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