IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_8244.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exposure to the Covid-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Tobin Hanspal
  • Annika Weber
  • Johannes Wohlfart

Abstract

We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the Covid-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt, but have only small effects on expected spending. We provide correlational and experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households’ expectations about their own wealth and their planned investment decisions and labor market activity. Our findings shed light on the implications of household exposure to stock market crashes for expectation formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobin Hanspal & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "Exposure to the Covid-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 8244, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8244_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    2. Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2016. "The Consumption and Wealth Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Lifetime Resources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1458-1471, May.
    3. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    4. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
    6. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    7. Andreas Fuster & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Mirko Wiederholt & Basit Zafar, 2022. "Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1059-1078, December.
    8. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Titan Alon & Matthias Doepke & Jane Olmstead-Rumsey & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality," NBER Working Papers 26947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2022. "Consumer responses to the COVID‐19 crisis: evidence from bank account transaction data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 905-929, October.
    11. Andreas Fuster & Greg Kaplan & Basit Zafar, 2021. "What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans [The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1760-1795.
    12. Thiemo Fetzer & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2021. "Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 968–978-9, December.
    13. Adams-Prassl, A. & Boneva, T. & Golin, M & Rauh, C., 2020. "Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: New Survey Evidence for the US," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2022, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Theresa Kuchler & Dominic Russel & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "The Geographic Spread of Covid-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook," CESifo Working Paper Series 8241, CESifo.
    15. Fatih Guvenen & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Jae Song & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 398-403, May.
    16. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    17. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    18. Lorenz Kueng, 2018. "Excess Sensitivity of High-Income Consumers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1693-1751.
    19. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    20. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2021. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 277-281, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
    2. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    3. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Bui, Dzung & Dräger, Lena & Hayo, Bernd & Nghiem, Giang, 2020. "Consumer Sentiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Others‘ Beliefs," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-680, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, revised Apr 2021.
    5. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    6. Abigail Hurwitz & Olivia S. Mitchell & Orly Sade, 2021. "Longevity Perceptions and Saving Decisions during the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Experimental Investigation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 297-301, May.
    7. Ravi Kashyap, 2021. "Behavioural Bias Benefits: Beating Benchmarks By Bundling Bouncy Baskets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4885-4921, September.
    8. Heyden, Kim J. & Heyden, Thomas, 2021. "Market reactions to the arrival and containment of COVID-19: An event study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    9. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    10. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    11. Ben Balmford & James D. Annan & Julia C. Hargreaves & Marina Altoè & Ian J. Bateman, 2020. "Cross-Country Comparisons of Covid-19: Policy, Politics and the Price of Life," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 525-551, August.
    12. Gregory, Richard Paul, 2022. "ESG scores and the response of the S&P 1500 to monetary and fiscal policy during the Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 446-456.
    13. Sha, Yezhou & Zhang, Yong & Lu, Xiaomeng, 2022. "Household investment diversification amid Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese investors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    14. Dräger, Lena & Bui, Dzung & Nghiem, Giang & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Consumer Sentiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242375, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Müller, Lara Marie & Harrs, Sören & Rockenbach, Bettina, 2022. "How Narratives Impact Financial Behavior - Experimental Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264089, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Tobin Hanspal & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations," CEBI working paper series 20-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    17. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Long T. Giang & Minh N. N. Do, 2021. "Building on Vietnam’s Recent COVID-19 Success: A Job-Focused Analysis of Individual Assessments on Their Finance and the Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-21, September.
    18. Hackethal, Andreas & Weber, Annika, 2020. "Fiscal policies and household consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review of early evidence," SAFE White Paper Series 76, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    19. Rai, Anish & Mahata, Ajit & Nurujjaman, Md & Majhi, Sushovan & Debnath, Kanish, 2022. "A sentiment-based modeling and analysis of stock price during the COVID-19: U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    20. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Danish Iqbal Godil & Munaza Bibi & Zhang Yu & Syed Muhammad Ahsan Rizvi, 2021. "The Economic and Social Impact of Teleworking in Romania: Present Practices and Post Pandemic Developments," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(58), pages 787-787, August.
    21. Anna Doś & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala & Joanna Błach, 2022. "The Effect of Business Legal Form on the Perception of COVID-19-Related Disruptions by Households Running a Business," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    22. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    23. Akos Horvath & Benjamin S. Kay & Carlo Wix, 2021. "The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    25. Ravi Kashyap, 2021. "Behavioral Bias Benefits: Beating Benchmarks By Bundling Bouncy Baskets," Papers 2109.03740, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanspal, Tobin & Weber, Annika & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "Exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash and its effect on household expectations," SAFE Working Paper Series 279, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Tobin Hanspal & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations," CEBI working paper series 20-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    3. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    4. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 35-51.
    6. Sonja Settele & Cortnie Shupe, 2020. "Lives or Livelihoods? Perceived Tradeoffs and Public Demand for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions," CEBI working paper series 20-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    7. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    8. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    9. David Bounie & Youssouf Camara & John Galbraith, 2020. "Consumers’ Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data," Cahiers de recherche 14-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    10. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
    11. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.
    12. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    13. Bruno P. Carvalho & Susana Peralta & João Pereira dos Santos, 2022. "Regional and sectorial impacts of the Covid‐19 crisis: Evidence from electronic payments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 757-798, June.
    14. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Michael Weber, 2022. "What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?," NBER Working Papers 29825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Dylong, Patrick & Koenings, Fabian, 2023. "Framing of economic news and policy support during a pandemic: Evidence from a survey experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Ambrocio, Gene & Juselius, Mikael, 2020. "Dealing with the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic – what are the fiscal options?," BoF Economics Review 2/2020, Bank of Finland.
    17. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Changes in Consumption in the Early COVID-19 Era: Zip-Code Level Evidence from the U.S," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-10, October.
    18. Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response," GLO Discussion Paper Series 524, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Guven, Cahit & Sotirakopoulos, Panagiotis & Ulker, Aydogan, 2020. "Short-term Labour Market Effects of COVID-19 and the Associated National Lockdown in Australia: Evidence from Longitudinal Labour Force Survey," GLO Discussion Paper Series 635, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    20. Kubota, So & Onishi, Koichiro & Toyama, Yuta, 2021. "Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    coronavirus; stockholding; wealth shocks; expectation formation; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.