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Wicksellian Theory of Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability

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Author Info
Alvarez, Luis H. R.
Koskela, Erkki
Abstract

The current literature on optimal forest rotation makes the assumption of constant interest rate. However, the irreversible harvesting decisions of forest stands are typically subject to relatively long time horizons over which interest rates do fluctuate considerably. In this paper we apply the Wicksellian single rotation framework to extend the existing studies to cover the unexplored case of variable interest rate. Given the technical generality of the considered valuation problem, we provide a thorough mathematical characterization of the optimal timing problem and develop new results. We show that even in the deterministic case if the current interest rate deviates from its long-run steady state, interest rate variability changes the rotation age significantly when compared with the constant discounting case. Further, and importantly, allowing for interest rate uncertainty is shown to increase the optimal rotation period when the value of the optimal policy is a convex function of the current interest rate. In line with this finding, we also establish that increased interest rate volatility has a positive impact on the optimal rotation period.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 606.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_606

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Related research
Keywords: Wicksellian rotation; variable interest rates; linear diffusions; optimal stopping; free boundary problems;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy
Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Morck, Randall & Schwartz, Eduardo & Stangeland, David, 1989. "The Valuation of Forestry Resources under Stochastic Prices and Inventories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 473-487, December. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Swallow Stephen K. & Wear David N., 1993. "Spatial Interactions in Multiple-Use Forestry and Substitution and Wealth Effects for the Single Stand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 103-120, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Markku Ollikainen & Erkki Koskela, 2001. "Optimal Private and Public Harvesting under Spatial and Temporal Interdependence," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Reed, William J & Clarke, Harry R, 1990. "Harvest Decisions and Asset Valuation for Biological Resources Exhibiting Size-Dependent Stochastic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 147-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alvarez, Luis H. R., 2001. "On the form and risk-sensitivity of zero coupon bonds for a class of interest rate models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 83-90, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tahvonen, Olli & Salo, Seppo & Kuuluvainen, Jari, 2001. "Optimal forest rotation and land values under a borrowing constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1595-1627, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "Economics of Forestry in an Evolving Society," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 466-92, December.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis H.R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2003. "On Forest Rotation Under Interest Rate Variability," Discussion Papers 840, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luis Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2003. "On Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 489-503, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Luis H.R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2003. "Irreversible Investment under Interest Rate Variability: Some Generalizations," Discussion Papers 841, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2002. "Irreversible Investment under Interest Rate Variability: New Results," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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