IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Martin C. Hänsel
  • Michael D. Bauer
  • Moritz A. Drupp
  • Gernot Wagner
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

The extent of future climate change is a policy choice. Using an integrated climate-economy assessment model, we estimate climate policy curves (CPCs) that link the price of carbon dioxide (CO2) to subsequent global temperatures. The resulting downward sloping CPCs quantify the inverse relationship between carbon prices and future temperatures and illustrate how climate policy choices determine climate outcomes. Our analysis can account for a variety of climate policies—for example, carbon or fuel taxes, emissions trading programs, green subsidies, and energy-efficiency regulations—all of which can be summarized by means of an effective CO2 price. Importantly, we also examine CPC uncertainty, for example, by perturbing the model’s equilibrium climate sensitivity to trace out the temperature range associated with a given CO2 price. Finally, based on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) integrated-assessment model scenarios, we estimate an implicit CPC, which provides a high-level IPCC summary of the climate policy actions required to achieve global climate targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin C. Hänsel & Michael D. Bauer & Moritz A. Drupp & Gernot Wagner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10113, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10113.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Gillingham & William Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly, 2018. "Modeling Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multimodel Comparison," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 791-826.
    2. Reyer Gerlagh & Matti Liski, 2018. "Carbon Prices for the Next Hundred Years," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 728-757, March.
    3. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2016. "A simple formula for the social cost of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-94.
    4. Rohan Best & Paul J. Burke & Frank Jotzo, 2020. "Carbon Pricing Efficacy: Cross-Country Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(1), pages 69-94, September.
    5. Reyer Gerlagh & Matti Liski, 2018. "Carbon Prices for The Next Hundred Years," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 728-757.
    6. William Nordhaus, 2018. "Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 333-360, August.
    7. Moritz A. Drupp & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2018. "Discounting Disentangled," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 109-134, November.
    8. Adrian E. Raftery & Alec Zimmer & Dargan M. W. Frierson & Richard Startz & Peiran Liu, 2017. "Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 637-641, September.
    9. Kriegler, Elmar & Petermann, Nils & Krey, Volker & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Ashina, Shuichi & Bosetti, Valentina & Eom, Jiyong & Kitous, Alban & Méjean, Aurélie & Paroussos, Leonida, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 45-61.
    10. Martin C. Hänsel & Moritz A. Drupp & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Frikk Nesje & Christian Azar & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Thomas Sterner, 2020. "Climate economics support for the UN climate targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 781-789, August.
    11. Leroutier, Marion, 2022. "Carbon pricing and power sector decarbonization: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    13. Gollier, Christian, 2018. "The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle," TSE Working Papers 18-952, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Apr 2022.
    14. Greer K. Gosnell & John A. List & Robert D. Metcalfe, 2020. "The Impact of Management Practices on Employee Productivity: A Field Experiment with Airline Captains," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1195-1233.
    15. Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2019. "Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 108-129.
    16. Kenneth Gillingham & James H. Stock, 2018. "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 53-72, Fall.
    17. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    18. Julius J. Andersson, 2019. "Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: Sweden as a Case Study," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, November.
    19. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 895-900, October.
    20. Mathijs Harmsen & Elmar Kriegler & Detlef van Vuuren & Kaj-Ivar van Der Wijst & Gunnar Luderer & Ryna Cui & Olivier Dessens & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Jennifer Morris & Florian Fosse & Di, 2021. "Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution," Post-Print hal-03216627, HAL.
    21. Laurent Drouet & Valentina Bosetti & Simone A. Padoan & Lara Aleluia Reis & Christoph Bertram & Francesco Dalla Longa & Jacques Després & Johannes Emmerling & Florian Fosse & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Ste, 2021. "Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1070-1076, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moritz A. Drupp & Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt, 2022. "Pricing Carbon," CESifo Working Paper Series 9608, CESifo.
    2. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117609, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Traeger, Christian, 2021. "ACE - Analytic Climate Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.
    6. Kornek, Ulrike & Klenert, David & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2021. "The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Miftakhova, Alena, 2021. "Global sensitivity analysis for optimal climate policies: Finding what truly matters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Geir B. Asheim & Rintaro Yamaguchi, 2023. "Comprehensive National Accounting for Carbon Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10562, CESifo.
    11. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Rafaty, Ryan & Dolphin, Geoffroy & Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Carbon Pricing and the Elasticity of CO2 Emissions," RFF Working Paper Series 21-33, Resources for the Future.
    13. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Richard Jaimes, 2021. "Does idiosyncratic risk matter for climate policy?," Vniversitas Económica 19276, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    15. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    16. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Anderson, Heather M. & Gao, Jiti & Turnip, Guido & Vahid, Farshid & Wei, Wei, 2023. "Estimating the effect of an EU-ETS type scheme in Australia using a synthetic treatment approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    18. Ottmar Edenhofer & Max Franks & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2021. "Pigou in the 21st Century: a tribute on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the publication of The Economics of Welfare," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1090-1121, October.
    19. Cees A. Withagen, 2018. "The Social Cost of Carbon and the Ramsey Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 7359, CESifo.
    20. Eric Jondeau & Gregory Levieuge & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel, 2022. "Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Transition Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-45, Swiss Finance Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate policy; carbon tax; climate-economy models; model comparison;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.