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Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

Author

Listed:
  • Adrian E. Raftery

    (University of Washington)

  • Alec Zimmer

    (Upstart)

  • Dargan M. W. Frierson

    (University of Washington)

  • Richard Startz

    (University of California)

  • Peiran Liu

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Using a fully statistical approach, the paper shows that the most likely range of cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. Carbon intensity reduction should accelerate to achieve the 1.5 °C warming target.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian E. Raftery & Alec Zimmer & Dargan M. W. Frierson & Richard Startz & Peiran Liu, 2017. "Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 637-641, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:9:d:10.1038_nclimate3352
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3352
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    Cited by:

    1. Simplice A. Asongu & Omang O. Messono & Keyanfe T. J. Guttemberg, 2022. "Women political empowerment and vulnerability to climate change: evidence from 169 countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Michelle R. McCrystall & Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Bruce C. Forbes & James A. Screen, 2021. "New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Rui Yin & Wenkuan Qin & Xudong Wang & Dong Xie & Hao Wang & Hongyang Zhao & Zhenhua Zhang & Jin-Sheng He & Martin Schädler & Paul Kardol & Nico Eisenhauer & Biao Zhu, 2023. "Experimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Omang O. Messono & Keyanfe T. J. Guttemberg, 2021. "Women political empowerment and vulnerability to climate change: evidence from developing countries," Working Papers of The Association for Promoting Women in Research and Development in Africa (ASPROWORDA). 21/001, The Association for Promoting Women in Research and Development in Africa (ASPROWORDA).
    5. Zhang, Da & Peng, Hantang & Zhang, Lin, 2023. "Share of polluting input as a sufficient statistic for burden sharing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Claudia Simolo & Susanna Corti, 2022. "Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Martin C. Hänsel & Michael D. Bauer & Moritz A. Drupp & Gernot Wagner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10113, CESifo.
    8. Zheng, Shenglin & Yuan, Rong, 2023. "Sectoral convergence analysis of China's emissions intensity and its implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).

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