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An exploration of childhood antecedents of female adult malaise in two British birth cohorts: Combining Bayesian model averaging and recursive partitioning

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  • John Hobcraft
  • Wendy Sigle-Rushton

Abstract

We use information from two prospective British birth cohort studies to explore the antecedents of adult malaise, an indicator of incipient depression. These studies include a wealth of information on childhood circumstances, behaviour, test scores and family background, measured several times during childhood. We are concerned both with incorporating model uncertainty and using a person-centred approach. We explore associations in both cohorts using two separate approaches: Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and recursive trees. The first approach permits us to assess model uncertainty, necessary because many childhood antecedents are highly correlated. BMA also aims to produce more robust results for extrapolation to other data sets through averaging over the range of plausible models. The second approach is concerned with partitioning the sample, through a series of binary splits, into groups of people who are as alike as possible. One advantage is that the approach is person-centred in that it retains real groups of respondents. We compare and contrast the insights obtained from the two approaches and use the results from each to inform the other and thus refine our understanding further. Moreover, we explore the claimed added robustness for extrapolation by using a split-sample for the 1970 cohort. The consistency of results across methods and cohorts is discussed throughout.

Suggested Citation

  • John Hobcraft & Wendy Sigle-Rushton, 2005. "An exploration of childhood antecedents of female adult malaise in two British birth cohorts: Combining Bayesian model averaging and recursive partitioning," CASE Papers 095, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:sticas:095
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    File URL: https://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper95.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Hobcraft, 2000. "The Roles of Schooling and Educational Qualifications in the Emergence of Adult Social Exclusion," CASE Papers case43, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    2. Wendy Sigle-Rushton, 2004. "Intergenerational and Life-Course Transmission of Social Exclusion in the 1970 British Cohort Study," CASE Papers 078, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    3. Hobcraft, John, 2003. "Continuity and change in pathways to young adult disadvantage: results from a British birth cohort," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6365, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. John Hobcraft, 2003. "Continuity and Change in Pathways to Young Adult Disadvantage: Results from a British Birth Cohort," CASE Papers case66, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    5. John Hobcraft, 1998. "Intergenerational and Life-Course Transmission of Social Exclusion: Influences and Childhood Poverty, Family Disruption and Contact with the Police," CASE Papers case15, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    6. David L. Weakliem, 1999. "Reply to Firth and Kuha, Gelman and Rubin, Raftery, and Xie," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 27(3), pages 436-443, February.
    7. John Hobcraft, 1998. "Intergenerational and Life-Course Transmission of Social Exclusion: Influences and Childhood Poverty, Family Disruption and Contact with the Police," CASE Papers 015, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    8. John Hobcraft, 2003. "Continuity and Change in Pathways to Young Adult Disadvantage: Results from a British Birth Cohort," CASE Papers 066, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    9. Sigle-Rushton, Wendy, 2004. "Intergenerational and life-course transmission of social exclusion in the 1970 British cohort study," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6316, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "Frequentist model averaging for multinomial and ordered logit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 118-128.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    well-being; cohort; Bayesian Model Averaging; recursive trees;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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