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Leaving Home: Modeling the Effect of Civic and Economic Structure on Individual Migration Patterns

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  • Alfred Nucci
  • Charles Tolbert
  • Troy Blanchard
  • Michael Irwin
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    Abstract

    This research analyzes the effect of community structure upon individuals' probabilities of moving between 1985 and 1990. Using the full Census sample long form microdata for 1990, we re-allocate adult persons in 1990 to their 1985 county of residence. Then, using origin county macro-structural variables (derived from the Economic Census microdata) and individual characteristics (from Decennial Census microdata), we develop a two level hierarchical linear model. In level 1, we construct a logistic equation modeling individual probabilities of moving. In level 2, we model the contextual effects of origin community structure on these models. These contextual effects fall into two categories: 1) economic conditions that comprise the usual aggregate 'push' factors and 2) civic community factors that act to retain people in their community. Results specify the relationship between community context and individual migration patterns, and demonstrate effects of local economic structure and local civic structure on these individual probabilities. Most notably, we find that civic attributes of communities are associated with a propensity to stay in place, net of community economic factors and individual characteristics.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp2.census.gov/ces/wp/2002/CES-WP-02-16.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 02-16.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:02-16

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    Related research

    Keywords: CES; economic; research; micro; data; microdata; chief; economist;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Larry Long, 1973. "Migration differentials by education and occupation: Trends and variations," Demography, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 243-258, May.
    2. T A Lyson & C M Tolbert, 1996. "Small manufacturing and nonmetropolitan socioeconomic well-being," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 28(10), pages 1779-1794, October.
    3. Barrett Lee & R. Oropesa & James Kanan, 1994. "Neighborhood Context and Residential Mobility," Demography, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 249-270, May.
    4. Michael White & Peter Mueser, 1988. "Implications of boundary choice for the measurement of residential mobility," Demography, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 443-459, August.
    5. Glenn Deane, 1990. "Mobility and adjustments: Paths to the resolution of residential stress," Demography, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 65-79, February.
    6. William Clark, 1992. "Residential preferences and residential choices in a multiethnic context," Demography, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 451-466, August.
    7. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & John C. Robertson, 2006. "The push-pull effects of the information technology boom and bust: insight from matched employer-employee data," Working Paper 2006-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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