Stability and Change in Individual Determinants of Migration: Evidence from 1985-1990 and 1995 to 2000
AbstractIn this paper, we compare the reliability of migration estimates from two rather different macroeconomic periods in recent U.S. history. One of these periods, 1985-1990 coincides with the culmination of a vast industrial restructuring which saw a significant decline in manufacturing employment. The other period, 1995-2000, encompasses a time of robust economic growth and tight labor markets driven by productivity gains associated with new technologies. Our interest here is in the stability of common individual-level predictors of migration in these rather disparate macroeconomic contexts. Using confidential internal versions of the 1990 and 2000 Census long-form data, we estimate logistic models of the likelihood that individuals will migrate. The geographic detail in the internal Census data permits us to measure migration in ways that are not possible with public-domain Census data on persons. We develop migration definitions that distinguish between local residential mobility likely associated with life course transitions from migration out of the labor market area that may be driven more by employment and other socioeconomic considerations. Using logistic modeling, we find that the same individual attributes predict migration reasonably well during both periods. We also compute some illustrative probabilities of migration that show temporal stability in migration predictors could be lessened by certain changes in population composition.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 06-27.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Migration; United States Census;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2007-01-14 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2007-01-14 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Clark, 1992. "Residential preferences and residential choices in a multiethnic context," Demography, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 451-466, August.
- Michael Irwin & Troy Blanchard & Charles Tolbert & Alfred Nucci & Thomas Lyson, 2004. "Why People Stay : The Impact of Community Context on Nonmigration in the USA," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 59(5), pages 567-592.
- Michael White & Peter Mueser, 1988. "Implications of boundary choice for the measurement of residential mobility," Demography, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 443-459, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fariha Kamal).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.