Price-level targeting versus inflation targeting over the long-term
AbstractThis paper investigates the long-term impact of price-level targeting on social welfare in an overlapping generations model in which the young save for old age by investing in productive capital and indexed and nominal government bonds. A key feature of the model is that the extent of bond indexation is determined endogenously in response to monetary policy as part of an optimal commitment Ramsey policy. Due to the absence of base-level drift under price-level targeting, long-term inflation risk is reduced by an order of magnitude compared to inflation targeting. Consequently, real bond returns are stabilised somewhat, and consumption volatility for old generations is reduced by around 15 per cent. The baseline welfare gain from price- level targeting is equivalent to a permanent increase in aggregate consumption of only 0.01 per cent, but this estimate is strongly sensitive on the upside.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2011/5.
Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
inflation targeting; price-level targeting; optimal indexation; government bonds;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-03-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2011-03-26 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2011-03-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-03-26 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Boris Cournède & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Is there a Case for Price-level Targeting?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 721, OECD Publishing.
- Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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