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Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-COV-2

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  • Giannitsarou, C.
  • Kissler, S.
  • Toxvaerd, F.

Abstract

This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Giannitsarou, C. & Kissler, S. & Toxvaerd, F., 2020. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-COV-2," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20126, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:20126
    Note: cg349, sk792, fmot2
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    Cited by:

    1. Makris, M. & Toxvaerd, F., 2020. "Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2097, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Dirk Niepelt & Mart n Gonzalez-Eiras, 2020. "Optimally Controlling an Epidemic," Diskussionsschriften dp2019, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    3. Joshua S Gans, 2022. "Optimal allocation of vaccines in a pandemic [‘An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization’]," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 912-923.
    4. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    5. Timo Boppart & Karl Harmenberg & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson, 2020. "Integrated epi-econ assessment," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 297, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    6. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    7. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2021. "Modeling optimal quarantines with waning immunity," TSE Working Papers 21-1206, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2022.
    8. Blas A. Marin-Lopez & David Jimenez-Gomez & José-María Abellán-Perpiñán, 2022. "Behavioral Economics in the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Theory and Simulations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-23, August.
    9. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2020. "Modeling optimal quarantines under infectious disease related mortality," Working Papers 202025, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    10. Brotherhood, Luiz & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Da Mata, Daniel & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "Slums and pandemics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    12. Bradley, Jake & Ruggieri, Alessandro & Spencer, Adam Hal, 2021. "Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Christoph Carnehl & Satoshi Fukuda & Nenad Kos, 2022. "Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns," Papers 2206.03847, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    15. Carbonero, Francesco & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Labour and technology at the time of Covid-19. Can artificial intelligence mitigate the need for proximity?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 765, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Fezzi, Carlo & Fanghella, Valeria, 2021. "Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: Insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Shomak Chakrabarti & Ilia Krasikov & Rohit Lamba, 2022. "Behavioral epidemiology: An economic model to evaluate optimal policy in the midst of a pandemic," Papers 2202.04174, arXiv.org.
    18. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    19. Alejandro Danón & Andrés S. Mena & Andrés Ramasco, 2021. "COVID-19 a nivel local: SEIR+ un modelo para proyectar escenarios epidemiológicos y demandas hacia el sistema sanitario," Ensayos de Política Económica, Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina., vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, Octubre.
    20. Mart n Gonzales-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt, 2023. "Optimal Epidemic Control," Diskussionsschriften dp2311, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    21. Schroeder, Max & Lazarakis, Spyridon & Mancy, Rebecca & Angelopoulos, Konstantinos, 2023. "An extended period of elevated influenza mortality risk follows the main waves of influenza pandemics," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    22. Aubert, Cécile & Dang, Hai-Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2022. "The Unequal Impact of the COVID Pandemic: Theory and Evidence on Health and Economic Outcomes for Different Income Groups," IZA Discussion Papers 15396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. M. Alper Çenesiz & Luís Guimarães, 2022. "COVID‐19: What if immunity wanes?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 626-664, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; economic epidemiology; social distancing; waning immunity; demographics; infection control; SEIRS.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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