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On the management of population immunity

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  • Toxvaerd, Flavio
  • Rowthorn, Robert

Abstract

This paper considers a susceptible-infected-recovered type model of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or swine flu, in which costly treatment or vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once immune, individuals indirectly protect the remaining susceptibles, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. Treatment and vaccination directly induce such herd immunity, which builds up over time. Optimal treatment is shown to involve intervention at early stages of the epidemic, while optimal vaccination may defer intervention to intermediate stages. Thus, while treatment and vaccination have superficial similarities, their effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic are different. Equilibrium vaccination is qualitatively similar to socially optimal vaccination, while equilibrium treatment differs in nature from socially optimal treatment. The optimal policies are compared to traditional non-economic public health interventions which rely on herd immunity thresholds.

Suggested Citation

  • Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:204:y:2022:i:c:s0022053122000916
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2022.105501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Bizzarri & Fabrizio Panebianco & Paolo Pin, 2023. "Homophily and infections: static and dynamic effects," Papers 2304.11934, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic epidemiology; Herd immunity; Treatment; Vaccination; Externalities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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