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On the Validity and Refinement of the Use of Rainfall as Instrument for Transitory Income

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  • Surach Tanboon

    (Bank of Thailand)

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    Abstract

    Given that rainfall is externally provided by nature and that it is also correlated with rural income, rainfall shocks seem to be the perfect instrument, as adopted in a popular interpretation of Paxson (1992). However, there are two problems with this reinterpretation: weak instruments and first-stage misspecification. After finding that rainfall is weakly correlated with income, I use Moreira's (2003) pivotal statistics to retest the hypothesis that the propensity to save out of transitory income is one, but still cannot reject the null. Later I find that there are previously untested assumptions on the income equation, and in fact the data indicate that they are invalid. In a new specification the propensity is found to be less than unity.

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    File URL: http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/EconomicConditions/Publication/DiscusPaper/DocLip_discussion/dp012005rurath_thai.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand in its series Working Papers with number 2005-10.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bth:wpaper:2005-10

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    9. Gurgand, Marc, 2003. "Farmer education and the weather: evidence from Taiwan (1976-1992)," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 51-70, June.
    10. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pedro Albarran & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2003. "Limited Commitment and Crowding out of Private Transfers: Evidence from a Randomised Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C77-C85, March.
    12. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
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