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The Limitations of Using School League Tables to Inform School Choice

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  • George Leckie
  • Harvey Goldstein

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Abstract

In England, so-called ‘league tables’ based upon examination results and test scores are published annually, ostensibly to inform parental choice of secondary schools. A crucial limitation of these tables is that the most recent published information is based on the current performance of a cohort of pupils who entered secondary schools several years earlier, whereas for choosing a school it is the future performance of the current cohort that is of interest. We show that there is substantial uncertainty in predicting such future performance and that incorporating this uncertainty leads to a situation where only a handful of schools’ future performances can be separated from both the overall mean and from one another with an acceptable degree of precision. This suggests that school league tables, including value-added ones, have very little to offer as guides to school choice.

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File URL: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmpo/publications/papers/2009/wp208.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK in its series The Centre for Market and Public Organisation with number 09/208.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bri:cmpowp:09/208

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Related research

Keywords: Examination results; Institutional comparisons; League tables; Multilevel modelling; Performance indicators; Ranking; School choice; School effectiveness; Value-added;

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References

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  1. David Afshartous & Michael Wolf, 2007. "Avoiding 'data snooping' in multilevel and mixed effects models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(4), pages 1035-1059.
  2. Sheila M. Bird & Cox Sir David & Vern T. Farewell & Goldstein Harvey & Holt Tim & Smith Peter C., 2005. "Performance indicators: good, bad, and ugly," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(1), pages 1-27.
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Cited by:
  1. Rebecca Allen & Simon Burgess, 2010. "Evaluating the provision of school performance information for school choice," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK 10/241, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  2. Maria Ferrão, 2012. "On the stability of value added indicators," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 627-637, February.
  3. Isabella Sulis & Mariano Porcu, 2012. "Comparing degree programs from students’ assessments: A LCRA-based adjusted composite indicator," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 193-209, June.
  4. Bruno Arpino & Roberta Varriale, 2009. "Assessing the quality of institutions' rankings obtained through multilevel linear regression models," Working Papers, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi 019, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.

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