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Optimal Foresight

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Chahrour

    (Boston College)

  • Kyle Jurado

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight in an information structure, and show how to separate informational assumptions about foresight from physical assumptions about the dynamics of the processes itself. We then develop a theory of endogenous foresight in which the type of foresight is chosen optimally by economic agents. In a prototypical dynamic model of consumption and saving, we derive a closed-form solution to the optimal foresight problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2020. "Optimal Foresight," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1017, Boston College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:1017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Milton Friedman & Simon Kuznets, 1945. "Income from Independent Professional Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie54-1, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Robert Waldmann & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption," ISER Discussion Paper 1135, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; rational inattention; incomplete information; noise shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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