IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/687.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Searching for yield abroad: risk-taking through foreign investment in U.S. bonds

Author

Listed:
  • John Ammer
  • Alexandra Tabova
  • Caleb Wroblewski

Abstract

The risk-taking effects of low interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, ("search-for-yield") are hard to analyze due to both a paucity of data and challenges in identification. Unique, security-level data on portfolio investment into the United States allow us to overcome both problems. Analyzing holdings of investors from 36 countries in close to 15,000 unique U.S. corporate bonds between 2003 and 2016, we show that declining home-country interest rates lead investors to shift their international bond portfolios toward riskier U.S. corporate bonds, consistent with "search-for-yield". We estimate even stronger effects when home interest rates reach a low level, suggesting that risk-taking in securities accelerates as rates decline.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ammer & Alexandra Tabova & Caleb Wroblewski, 2018. "Searching for yield abroad: risk-taking through foreign investment in U.S. bonds," BIS Working Papers 687, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:687
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work687.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work687.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708pipbp is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    4. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    5. Claessens, Stijn & Coleman, Nicholas & Donnelly, Michael, 2018. "“Low-For-Long” interest rates and banks’ interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 1-16.
    6. Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "International Currencies and Capital Allocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2019-2066.
    7. Efing, Matthias, 2015. "Arbitraging the Basel securitization framework: Evidence from German ABS investment," Discussion Papers 40/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Mr. Divya Kirti, 2017. "When Gambling for Resurrection is Too Risky," IMF Working Papers 2017/180, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2017. "Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 613-654, April.
    10. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 22-51, March.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    13. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    14. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    15. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    16. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2015. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1863-1902, October.
    17. Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
    18. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2016. "Asset allocation and monetary policy: Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 309-329.
    19. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    20. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    21. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2012. "International Shock Transmission after the Lehman Brothers Collapse: Evidence from Syndicated Lending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 231-237, May.
    22. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708pipbp is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2018. "Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 376-388.
    24. Mariassunta Giannetti & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Flight Home, Flight Abroad, and International Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 219-224, May.
    25. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy: Market Impact and International Spillovers," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 36-74, May.
    26. Sirio Aramonte & Seung Jung Lee & Viktors Stebunovs, 2015. "Risk Taking and Low Longer-term Interest Rates: Evidence from the U.S. Syndicated Loan Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Martijn A. Boermans & Robert Vermeulen, 2020. "International investment positions revisited: Investor heterogeneity and individual security characteristics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 466-496, May.
    28. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2012. "International shock transmission after the Lehman Brothers collapse – evidence from syndicated lending," Working Papers 142, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    29. Di Maggio, Marco & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2017. "The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 59-80.
    30. World Bank, 2017. "International Debt Statistics 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25697, December.
    31. Peter C. Fishburn & R. Burr Porter, 1976. "Optimal Portfolios with One Safe and One Risky Asset: Effects of Changes in Rate of Return and Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1064-1073, June.
    32. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
    33. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2013. "Interest Rates and the Bank Risk-Taking Channel," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 123-141, November.
    34. Jaewon Choi & Mathias Kronlund, 2018. "Reaching for Yield in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1930-1965.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    2. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the Euro area investment fund industry: A structural factor-augmented vector autoregression analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "US dollar funding: an international perspective," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65, december.
    4. Christoph Kaufmann, 2023. "Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 593-636.
    5. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Martijn Boermans & Viacheslav Keshkov, 2018. "The impact of the ECB asset purchases on the European bond market structure: Granular evidence on ownership concentration," DNB Working Papers 590, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. David Knezevic & Martin Nordström & Pär Österholm, 2021. "The relation between municipal and government bond yields in an era of unconventional monetary policy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(1), February.
    8. Carvalho, Daniel & Schmitz, Martin, 2022. "Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum," Working Paper Series 2734, European Central Bank.
    9. Wilson, Christian & Caldecott, Ben, 2023. "Investigating the role of passive funds in carbon-intensive capital markets: Evidence from U.S. bonds," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    10. Katharina Bergant & Michael Fidora & Martin Schmitz, 2020. "International Capital Flows at the Security Level – Evidence from the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme," IMF Working Papers 2020/046, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bergant, Katharina & Fidora, Michael & Schmitz, Martin, 2018. "International capital flows at the security level � evidence from the ECB�s asset purchase programme," ECMI Papers 13926, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Ammer & Stijn Claessens & Alexandra M. Tabova & Caleb Wroblewski, 2018. "Searching for Yield Abroad : Risk-Taking Through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds," International Finance Discussion Papers 1224, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Ammer, John & Claessens, Stijn & Tabova, Alexandra & Wroblewski, Caleb, 2019. "Home country interest rates and international investment in U.S. bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 212-227.
    3. Warinthip Worasak & Nuwat Nookhwun & Pongpitch Amatyakul, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Thai Corporate Bond Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 186, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    6. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2017. "Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 613-654, April.
    7. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Laeven, Luc & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Suarez, Gustavo, 2016. "Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy’s Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 11230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Lee, Seung Jung & Liu, Lucy Qian & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2022. "Risk-taking spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in the global market for U.S. dollar corporate loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2019. "Will macroprudential policy counteract monetary policy’s effects on financial stability?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 65-75.
    11. Wischnewsky Arina & Neuenkirch Matthias, 2021. "Shadow banks and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 97-128, February.
    12. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Salih Fendoğlu & Eda Gülşen & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Global liquidity and impairment of local monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1680, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    14. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Nöckel, Matthias, 2018. "The risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 71-91.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Agur, Itai, 2019. "Monetary and macroprudential policy coordination among multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 192-209.
    17. Altavilla, Carlo & Laeven, Luc & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Complementarities: evidence from European credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Maximilian Konradt, 2023. "Do pension funds reach for yield? Evidence from a new database," IHEID Working Papers 01-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    20. Heider, Florian & Leonello, Agnese, 2021. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Reversal Rate and Risk-Taking," Working Paper Series 2593, European Central Bank.
    21. Wang, Ling, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases, banks’ risky security holdings and profitability: Macro and micro evidence from Japan and the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 347-364.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    low interest rates; search for yield; portfolio choice; corporate debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.