IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1036.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth expectations and the dynamics of firm entry

Author

Listed:
  • Enisse Kharroubi

Abstract

How do aggregate conditions affect the dynamics of firm entry? Do recessions force more firms out, allowing for more firms to enter subsequently? Or does this process require other circumstances to thrive? I look into these questions using sectoral data on firm entry and exit for the main economies of the Euro Area over 2009-2019. My main finding is that expected, rather than current, GDP growth shapes the dynamics of firm entry. Specifically, I find that entry increases with past exits at the sector-level, but only when aggregate GDP growth is forecasted to be strong. Also, with strong growth forecasts, past entry developments weight less on the subsequent sectoral entry dynamics. Periods of low entry and high exit, can therefore be followed by strong entry subsequently, when the economy is expected to grow strongly. These findings are robust to the inclusion of several controls. This includes the quality of insolvency proceedings, firms' ability to obtain credit or the presence of barriers to entry. Finally, I show that expectations of private and public investment drive the impact of growth expectations on the dynamics of firm entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Enisse Kharroubi, 2022. "Growth expectations and the dynamics of firm entry," BIS Working Papers 1036, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1036.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1036.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    2. Johnson, Peter & Parker, Simon, 1994. "The Interrelationships between Births and Deaths," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 283-290, August.
    3. Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3182-3210, October.
    4. Pe'er, Aviad & Vertinsky, Ilan, 2008. "Firm exits as a determinant of new entry: Is there evidence of local creative destruction?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 280-306, May.
    5. Cavallari, Lilia & Romano, Simone & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2021. "The original sin: Firms’ dynamics and the life-cycle consequences of economic conditions at birth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Philippe Aghion & Thibault Fally & Stefano Scarpetta, 2007. "Credit constraints as a barrier to the entry and post-entry growth of firms [‘Dualism and macroeconomic volatility’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(52), pages 732-779.
    8. Sara Moreira, 2017. "Firm Dynamics, Persistent Effects of Entry Conditions, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 17-29, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2005. "Market Size Matters," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 1-25, March.
    10. Sebastian Barnes & Robert Hillman & George Wharf & Duncan MacDonald, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on corporate fragility in the United Kingdom: Insights from a new calibrated firm-level Corporate Sector Agent-Based (CAB) Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1674, OECD Publishing.
    11. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Michael Stepner & The Opportunity Insights Team, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," NBER Working Papers 27431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Balázs Égert & Peter Gal & Isabelle Wanner, 2017. "Structural policy indicators database for economic research (SPIDER)," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1429, OECD Publishing.
    13. Cook, David, 2001. "Time to enter and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1241-1261, August.
    14. François Gourio & Todd Messer & Michael Siemer, 2016. "Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-Level Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 214-218, May.
    15. Martin, Philippe & Cros, Mathieu & Epaulard, Anne, 2021. "Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Barlevy, Gadi, 2003. "Credit market frictions and the allocation of resources over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1795-1818, November.
    17. Dan Andrews & Andrew Charlton & Angus Moore, 2021. "COVID-19, productivity and reallocation: Timely evidence from three OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1676, OECD Publishing.
    18. Tian, Can, 2018. "Firm-level entry and exit dynamics over the business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 298-326.
    19. Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    20. de Bondt, Gabe & Ferrando, Annalisa & Berg, Jesper & Van Rixtel, Adrian & Scopel, Silvia, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ascari, Guido & Colciago, Andrea & Silvestrini, Riccardo, 2023. "Business dynamism, sectoral reallocation and productivity in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Cavallari, Lilia & Romano, Simone & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2021. "The original sin: Firms’ dynamics and the life-cycle consequences of economic conditions at birth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Tian, Can, 2022. "Learning and firm dynamics in a stochastic equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Garnadt, Niklas & von Rueden, Christina & Thiel, Esther, 2021. "Labour reallocation dynamics in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic and past recessions," Working Papers 08/2021, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Savagar, Anthony & Dixon, Huw, 2020. "Firm entry, excess capacity and endogenous productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Bahaj, Saleem & Piton, Sophie & Savagar, Anthony, 2022. "Business creation during Covid-19," Bank of England working papers 981, Bank of England.
    7. Savagar, Anthony, 2021. "Measured productivity with endogenous markups and economic profits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Demographics and the Decline in Firm Entry: Lessons from a Life-Cycle Model," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224603, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Ia Vardishvili, 2020. "Entry Decision, the Option to Delay Entry, and Business Cycles," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    10. Lynda Sanderson, 2024. "Born in bad times: Economic conditions, selection and employment," Working Papers 2024/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    11. Aubhik Khan & Julia Thomas & Tatsuro Senga, 2018. "The Persistent Effects of Entry and Exit," 2018 Meeting Papers 707, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2019. "Entry, Trade, and Exporting over the Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 83-126, December.
    13. Camino-Mogro, Segundo, 2020. "Turbulence in startups: Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on creation of new firms and its capital," MPRA Paper 104502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aubhik Khan & Julia Thomas & Tatsuro Senga, 2019. "Business Formation and Economic Growth Beyond the Great Recession," 2019 Meeting Papers 1453, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Konon, Alexander & Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2018. "Business cycles and start-ups across industries: An empirical analysis of German regions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 742-761.
    16. Andrea Colciago & Volker Lindenthal & Antonella Trigari, 2019. "Who Creates and Destroys Jobs over the Business Cycle?," DNB Working Papers 628, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Dudley Cooke & Tatiana Damjanovic, 2020. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Model of Firm Entry with Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 74-96, January.
    18. Winkler, Adalbert & Geis, André & Böwer, Uwe, 2007. "Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa," Occasional Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
    19. Russo, Daniela & Caviglia, Giacomo & Papathanassiou, Chryssa & Rosati, Simonetta, 2007. "Prudential and oversight requirements for securities settlement," Occasional Paper Series 76, European Central Bank.
    20. William F. Lincoln & Andrew H. McCallum & Michael Siemer, 2017. "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm entry; exit; growth expectations; private and public investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1036. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.