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Seeds of hope: Assessing the effect of development aid on the reduction of child mortality

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  • Roberto Burguet
  • Marcelo Soto

Abstract

The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 591.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:591

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Keywords: ODA; child mortality; aid effectiveness;

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  1. Mishra, Prachi & Newhouse, David, 2009. "Does health aid matter?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 855-872, July.
  2. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2010. "The Determinants of Food Aid Provisions to Africa and the Developing World," NBER Working Papers 16610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Markus Bruckner, 2011. "On the Simultaneity Problem in the Aid and Growth Debate," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  4. Michael A. Clemens & Charles J. Kenny & Todd J. Moss, 2004. "The Trouble with the MDGs: Confronting Expectations of Aid and Development Success," Working Papers 40, Center for Global Development.
  5. Karuna Gomanee & Sourafel Girma & Oliver Morrissey, 2005. "Aid, public spending and human welfare: evidence from quantile regressions," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 299-309.
  6. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
  8. Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development.
  9. Chauvet, Lisa & Gubert, Flore & Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine, 2008. "Are Remittances More Effective Than Aid To Improve Child Health? An Empirical Assessment using Inter and Intra-Country Data," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10707, Paris Dauphine University.
  10. Lisa Chauvet & Flore Gubert & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2009. "Are Remittances More Effective Than Aid To Reduce Child Mortality? An Empirical Assessment using Inter and Intra-Country Data," Working Papers DT/2009/11, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  11. Ann L. Owen & Stephen Wu, 2007. "Is Trade Good for Your Health?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 660-682, 09.
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Cited by:
  1. Roberto Burguet & Marcelo Soto, 2012. "Measuring the Child Mortality Impact of Official Aid for Fighting Infectious Diseases, 2000-2010," Working Papers 616, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

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