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L’Indicateur Synthétique Mensuel d’Activité (ISMA) : une révision

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  • Darné, O.
  • Brunhes-Lesage, V.

Abstract

This paper proposes new bridge equations for the Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) published by the Banque de France. The MIBA is a forecasting tool for the quarterly GDP growth in France both for the current quarter and the next quarter, originally based on the surveys in the industrial sector published in the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) conducted by the Banque de France. Two improvements are suggested: first, from a technical viewpoint, we use an automatic model selection procedure which brings a robust, clear and systematic framework for selecting variables; second, from a modelling viewpoint, we take into account the business surveys in the services sector published by the Banque de France. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 171.

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Length: 72 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:171

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Keywords: Conjunctural analysis ; GDP forecasting ; Bbridge equations ; Business surveys.;

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  1. Peter Grasmann & Filip Keereman, 2001. "An indicator-based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 154, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Jennifer L. Castle, 2005. "Evaluating PcGets and RETINA as Automatic Model Selection Algorithms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 837-880, December.
  3. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  4. Kevin Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2003. "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Working Papers 9727, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  5. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  6. repec:fth:eeccco:154 is not listed on IDEAS
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