L’Indicateur Synthétique Mensuel d’Activité (ISMA) : une révision
AbstractThis paper proposes new bridge equations for the Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) published by the Banque de France. The MIBA is a forecasting tool for the quarterly GDP growth in France both for the current quarter and the next quarter, originally based on the surveys in the industrial sector published in the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) conducted by the Banque de France. Two improvements are suggested: first, from a technical viewpoint, we use an automatic model selection procedure which brings a robust, clear and systematic framework for selecting variables; second, from a modelling viewpoint, we take into account the business surveys in the services sector published by the Banque de France. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 171.
Length: 72 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Conjunctural analysis ; GDP forecasting ; Bbridge equations ; Business surveys.;
Other versions of this item:
- Darné, O. & Brunhes-Lesage, V., 2007. "L’indicateur synthétique mensuel d’activité (ISMA) : une révision," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 162, pages 21-36.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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