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El Riesgo de Mercado de la Deuda Pública: ¿Una Restricción a la Política Monetaria? El Caso Colombiano

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  • Hernando Vargas Herrera

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  • Dpto de Estabilidad Financiera
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    Abstract

    El presente trabajo ilustra cómo los altos niveles de deuda pública, a través de los riesgos de mercado, pueden convertirse en una restricción para la ejecución de la política monetaria. Dependiendo de donde se financie el sector público, un nivel grande de deuda pública se refleja en una importante exposición de éste al riesgo cambiario y/o en una exposición sustancial del sistema financiero a los riesgos de mercado. Ante esta situación, un choque a la cuenta de capitales que genere una fuerte depreciación de la moneda y una caída en los precios de los títulos de deuda pública podría restringir las acciones de la autoridad monetaria. Una política restrictiva encaminada a cumplir las metas inflacionarias podría generar pérdidas importantes por valoración en el portafolio de las instituciones financieras, afectando de esta manera la estabilidad del sistema. El documento discute por qué los riesgos de mercado de la deuda pública son un problema latente en Colombia a la vez que se discute cómo podría responder el banco central ante una salida de capitales.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 382.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:382

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    Keywords: Política monetaria; riesgos de mercado.;

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    1. Gunnar Bardsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P.Tsomocos, 2006. "Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1992. "Anatomy of a Financial Crisis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 115-30, August.
    3. Juan Pablo Arango A. & Mauricio Arias & Esteban Gómez & David Salamanca & Diego M. Vásquez E., . "Estimación de los requerimientos de capital por riesgo de mercado," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 014, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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