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Financial Stability in Brazil

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  • Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva
  • Ricardo Eyer Harris

Abstract

This paper proposes a working definition for “financial stability” related to systemic risk. Systemic risk is then measured as the probability of disruption of financial services taking into account its time and cross-sectional dimensions and several risk factors. The paper discusses the implications of this definition for Brazil in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. A comparison with the United States and the Euro zone is provided. In addition, systemic risk in the Brazilian credit market is investigated given its crucial role as main financial stability driver. Finally, synthetic indicators of systemic risk are used to monitor financial stability. The link between systemic risk and synthetic indicators and/or well-correlated proxies (e.g., a credit-to-GDP gap) allows the calculation of the probability of disruption of the financial system across its time dimension. Therefore, if a Financial Stability Committee and/or the prudential regulator define its tolerance level for “financial stability” as a threshold measured by this probability of disruption, it might have the capability of determining the precise moment when it should strengthen its set of adequate macroprudential responses and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Ricardo Eyer Harris, 2012. "Financial Stability in Brazil," Working Papers Series 289, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:289
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Modenesi, Rui Lyrio & Modenesi, André de Melo & Martins, Norberto Montani & Fontaine, Patrick, 2015. "Restructuring the Economic Policy Framework in Brazil: Genuine or Gattopardo change?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 17.
    3. Fabia A. de Carvalho & Marcos R. de Castro, 2015. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interaction: a Brazilian perspective," Working Papers Series 405, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Brazil: Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy Framework," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/148, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
    7. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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