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Financial Stability in Brazil

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Author Info

  • Luiz A. Pereira da Silva
  • Adriana Soares Sales
  • Wagner Piazza Gaglianone

Abstract

This paper proposes a working definition for “financial stability” related to systemic risk. Systemic risk is then measured as the probability of disruption of financial services taking into account its time and cross-sectional dimensions and several risk factors. The paper discusses the implications of this definition for Brazil in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. A comparison with the United States and the Euro zone is provided. In addition, systemic risk in the Brazilian credit market is investigated given its crucial role as main financial stability driver. Finally, synthetic indicators of systemic risk are used to monitor financial stability. The link between systemic risk and synthetic indicators and/or well-correlated proxies (e.g., a credit-to-GDP gap) allows the calculation of the probability of disruption of the financial system across its time dimension. Therefore, if a Financial Stability Committee and/or the prudential regulator define its tolerance level for “financial stability” as a threshold measured by this probability of disruption, it might have the capability of determining the precise moment when it should strengthen its set of adequate macroprudential responses and policies.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps289.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 289.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:289

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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References

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  1. Germán López-Espinosa & Antonio Rubia & Laura Valderrama & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Systemic Risk and Asymmetric Responses in the Financial Industry," IMF Working Papers 12/152, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  3. Pierre-Richard & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Capital Requirements and Business Cycles with Credit Market Imperfections," Working Papers Series 231, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Sheri Markose & Simone Giansante & Mateusz Gatkowski & Ali Rais Shaghaghi, 2010. "Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial Contagion and Systemic Risk In Network Model of CDS and Other Credit Enhancement Obligations of US Banks," Working Papers 033, COMISEF.
  5. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  6. Nikola Tarashev & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," BIS Working Papers 342, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Anatomy of a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 3934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gianni De Nicoló & Giovanni Favara & Lev Ratnovski, 2012. "Externalities and Macroprudential Policy," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/05, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Marcos R. de Castro & Solange N. Gouvea & André Minella & Rafael C. dos Santos & Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho, 2011. "SAMBA: Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach," Working Papers Series 239, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Co-Pierre Georg, 2010. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and financial stability," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 12-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  12. William A. Allen & Geoffrey Wood, 2005. "Defining and Achieving Financial Stability," FMG Special Papers sp160, Financial Markets Group.
  13. Schechtman, Ricardo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2012. "Macro stress testing of credit risk focused on the tails," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 174-192.
  14. Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Ricardo Eyer Harris, 2012. "Sailing through the Global Financial Storm: Brazil's recent experience with monetary and macroprudential policies to lean against the financial cycle and deal with systemic risks," Working Papers Series 290, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. Adriana Soares Sales & Waldyr D. Areosa & Marta B. M. Areosa, 2012. "Some Financial Stability Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 287, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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Cited by:
  1. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
  2. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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