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El Balance Fisacl y el Balance en la Cuenta Corriente en Colombia: Canales de Transmisión y Causalidad

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  • Jorge Ramos

    ()

  • Hernán Rincón

    ()

Abstract

Este documento identifica y evalúa empíricamente los posibles canales de transmisión entre el balance fiscal y el balance en cuenta corriente y determina estadísticamente la posible causalidad ente ellos. Para el período analizado, no se encuentra una clara relación entre los dos balances, y entre ellos y los canales de transmisión identificados por la teoría. Cuando existen indicios estadísticos de un nexo entre los dos balances, el sentido de la relación es inverso al que comúnmente se espera, es decir, se encuentra que el balance en cuenta corriente causa el balance fiscal.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 166.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:166

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Keywords: Balance fiscal; balance en cuenta corriente; causalidad de Granger; VAR estándar; VAR estructural.;

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  1. Alberto Carrasquilla & Hernán Rincón, 1990. "Relaciones entre déficit público y ahorro privado: Aproximaciones al caso colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Jose Antonio Ocampo Gaviria, 1988. "Una Nota Sobre La Relacion Entre El Financiamiento Externo, Ahorro E Inversion," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  3. Hendry, David F. & Learmer, Edward E. & Poirier, Dale J., 1990. "A Conversation on Econometric Methodology," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 171-261, June.
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  5. William H. Branson & Willem H. Buiter, 1982. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  7. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
  8. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "International Money and Finance," Working papers 2008-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, . "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-97, August.
  12. Jorge Ramos & Norberto Rdríguez, 1995. "Déficit fiscal y tasas de interés en Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  13. Alberto Carrasquilla & Natalia Salazar, 1992. "Sobre la naturaleza del ajuste fiscal en Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:2:p:171-261 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
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