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Stress testing credit risk: a survey of authorities' approaches

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Author Info
Antonella Foglia () (Banca d'Italia)
Abstract

This paper reviews the quantitative methods used at selected central banks to stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Stress testing credit risk is an essential element of the Basel II Framework; because of their financial stability perspective, central banks and supervisors are particularly interested in quantifying the macro-to-micro linkages and have developed a specific modeling expertise in this field. In assessing current macro stress testing practices, the paper highlights the more recent developments and a number of methodological challenges that may be useful for supervisors in their review process of the banks' stress test models as required by the Basel II Framework. It also contributes to the on-going macroprudential research efforts that aim to integrate macroeconomic oversight and prudential supervision, in the direction of early identification of key vulnerabilities and assessment of macro-financial linkages.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/quest_ecofin_2/qf_37/QEF_37.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 37.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_37_08

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Related research
Keywords: Macro stress testing; financial stability; macro-prudential analysis; credit risk; probability of default;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Åsberg Sommar, Per & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2008. "Macroeconomic Impact on Expected Default Frequency," Working Paper Series 219, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin Cihák, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 07/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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