Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets
AbstractIn this paper we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices for Canadian Government bonds. We follow the information-share approaches introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Harris et al (1995), applying the techniques in Gonzalo-Granger (1995), to evaluate the relative contributions of trading in the cash and futures markets to the price discovery process. Both approaches estimate a vector error correction model that permits the separation of long-run price movements from short-run market microstructure effects. As well, we follow Yan and Zivot (2004) who introduce size measures of a market's adjustment to a new equilibrium during the price discovery process. We find that, on an average day, just over 70% of price discovery occurs on the futures market where bid-ask spreads are lower and trading activity is higher. The size of the responses to shocks and the time taken to adjust to a new equilibrium are found to be significantly larger for the cash market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 07-4.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Financial markets; Market structure and pricing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988.
" Liquidity and Market Structure,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-37, July.
- Grunbichler Andreas & Longstaff Francis A. & Schwartz Eduardo S., 1994. "Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 166-187, March.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa & Jing Yang, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds," Working Papers 03-28, Bank of Canada.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-52.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011.
"Price Discovery and Trade Fragmentation in a Multi-Market Environment: Evidence from the MTS System,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3525, CESifo Group Munich.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Price Discovery and Trade Fragmentation in a Multi-Market Environment: Evidence from the MTS System," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1139, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Informational Content of Trades on the EuroMTS Platform," ISAE Working Papers 97, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.