IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bok/wpaper/1508.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price Discovery and Foreign Participation in Korea's Government Bond Cash and Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jaehun CHOI

    (The Bank of Korea)

  • Hosung LIM

    (The Bank of Korea)

  • Rogelio Jr. MERCADO

    (Trinity College Dublin)

  • Cyn-Young PARK

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of foreign participation in Korean Treasury Bond (KTB) futures and its role in price discovery, using daily transactions data from the over-the-counter market and from the Korea Exchange for the futures. Our analysis suggests that foreign trading in the KTB futures market leads the price discovery process for the underlying bonds. Empirical results show that foreigners' daily net long positions in the futures market exert significant influence in KTB and KTB futures prices. We also find that it is the unexpected component of foreign investors' net long futures positions that explains a significant share of the pricing effects, suggesting that how foreign trading responds to news carries additional information content.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaehun CHOI & Hosung LIM & Rogelio Jr. MERCADO & Cyn-Young PARK, 2015. "Price Discovery and Foreign Participation in Korea's Government Bond Cash and Futures Markets," Working Papers 2015-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
  • Handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://papers.bok.or.kr/RePEc_attach/wpaper/english/wp-2015-8.pdf
    File Function: Working Paper, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Theissen, 2012. "Price discovery in spot and futures markets: a reconsideration," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 969-987, November.
    2. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    3. James T. Witherspoon, 1993. "How price discovery by futures impacts the cash market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 469-496, August.
    4. Christopher Chung & Bryan Campbell & Scott Hendry, 2007. "Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets," Staff Working Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.
    5. Minho Kim & Andrew C. Szakmary & Thomas V. Schwarz, 1999. "Trading costs and price discovery across stock index futures and cash markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 475-498, June.
    6. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter, 2007. "Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets: Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 189-208, March.
    7. Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/088, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Simpson, W. Gary & Ireland, Timothy C., 1985. "The Impact of Financial Futures on the Cash Market for Treasury Bills," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 371-379, September.
    9. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price discovery in the Italian sovereign bonds market: the role of order flow," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 906, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    11. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz & Shane E. Underwood, 2007. "Price discovery in the treasury futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(11), pages 1021-1051, November.
    12. Bryan Campbell & Scott Hendry, 2007. "Price Discovery in Canadian and U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Markets," Staff Working Papers 07-43, Bank of Canada.
    13. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2010. "Emerging Local Currency Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 16249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mao‐Wei Hung & Hua Zhang, 1995. "Price movements and price discovery in the municipal bond index and the index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 489-506, June.
    15. Richards, Anthony, 2005. "Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behavior and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-27, March.
    16. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    17. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Trading costs and the relative rates of price discovery in stock, futures, and option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 353-387, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Huo, Rui & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2018. "Relationships between Chinese stock market and its index futures market: Evaluating the impact of QFII scheme," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-152.
    3. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jun 2016.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fleming, Michael J. & Mizrach, Bruce & Nguyen, Giang, 2018. "The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: The BrokerTec platform," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 2-22.
    2. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    3. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    4. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Koulis, Alexandros, 2020. "Price discovery in bitcoin futures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Damien Wallace & Petko S. Kalev & Guanhua Lian, 2019. "The evolution of price discovery in us equity and derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1122-1136, September.
    6. Aldrich, Eric M. & Lee, Seung, 2018. "Relative spread and price discovery," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 81-98.
    7. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Does the "Bund" dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1057-1072, May.
    8. Edward Curran & Jack Hunt & Vito Mollica, 2020. "Trading protocols and price discovery: Implicit transaction costs in Indian single stock futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1793-1806, November.
    9. Laura Jaramillo & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/264, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Kinateder, Harald, 2021. "Information shares and market quality before and during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Wang, David K., 2016. "Information content of investor trading behavior: Evidence from Taiwan index options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 149-160.
    12. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Rahmi Erdem Aktug, 2015. "Empirical dynamics of emerging financial markets during the global mortgage crisis," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(1), pages 17-36, March.
    14. Sanjay Sehgal & Mala Dutt, 2016. "Domestic and international information linkages between NSE Nifty spot and futures markets: an empirical study for India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 43(3), pages 239-258, September.
    15. Kam C. Chan & Louis T. W. Cheng & Peter P. Lung, 2005. "Asymmetric Volatility and Trading Activity in Index Futures Options," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 381-407, August.
    16. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Ilias D. Visvikis & Panayotis D. Alexakis, 2008. "The Lead‐Lag Relationship Between Cash and Stock Index Futures in a New Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1007-1025, November.
    17. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Sanjay Sehgal & Wasim Ahmad & Florent Deisting, 2015. "An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 261-284, May.
    19. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2018. "Bond Vigilantes and Inflation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 263-300, March.
    20. Kowalewski, Oskar & Pisany, Paweł, 2019. "What drove the growth of the corporate bond markets in Asia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 365-380.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price discovery; emerging market; government bond; foreign participation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Economic Research Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imbokkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.