IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocatr/119.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Corrigan
  • Hélène Desgagnés
  • José Dorich
  • Vadym Lepetyuk
  • Wataru Miyamoto
  • Yang Zhang

Abstract

We present a technical description of the second large-scale update to the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model: ToTEM III. This updated version of the model replaced ToTEM II in 2017. ToTEM III's structure includes key aspects of household indebtedness and improved modelling of the housing market. These new features allow Bank staff to address a broader range of economic issues. Moreover, the model is estimated using a Bayesian methodology with informative priors and a larger set of observable variables, including improved measures of the factors explaining non-commodity exports. These enhancements in the model structure and estimation have contributed to significant improvements in the empirical properties of the model. We also compare the new model’s responses to key macroeconomic shocks with those of ToTEM II and explore two important policy applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Corrigan & Hélène Desgagnés & José Dorich & Vadym Lepetyuk & Wataru Miyamoto & Yang Zhang, 2021. "ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis," Technical Reports 119, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/06/technical-report-119/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/tr119.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
    2. André Binette & Tony Chernis & Daniel de Munnik, 2017. "Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE," Discussion Papers 17-2, Bank of Canada.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    4. Laurence Savoie-Chabot & Mikael Khan, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers 15-9, Bank of Canada.
    5. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    6. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    7. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2017. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 28-49.
    8. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    9. Patrick Alexander & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Alex Proulx, 2017. "An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports," Discussion Papers 17-1, Bank of Canada.
    10. Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    12. José Dorich & Michael K. Johnston & Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison & Yang Zhang, 2013. "ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 100, Bank of Canada.
    13. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    14. José Dorich & Vadym Lepetyuk & Jonathan Swarbrick, 2018. "Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-28, Bank of Canada.
    15. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    16. Gregory Bauer, 2014. "International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums," Staff Working Papers 14-54, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    2. Wagner, Joel & Schlanger, Tudor & Zhang, Yang, 2023. "A horse race of alternative monetary policy regimes under bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Marc-André Gosselin & Temel Taskin, 2023. "What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?," Discussion Papers 2023-13, Bank of Canada.
    4. Donald Coletti, 2023. "A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models," Discussion Papers 2023-23, Bank of Canada.
    5. Vivian Chu & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-13, Bank of Canada.
    6. Sarah Burkinshaw & Yaz Terajima & Carolyn A. Wilkins, 2022. "Income Inequality in Canada," Discussion Papers 2022-16, Bank of Canada.
    7. Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2023. "Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections," Discussion Papers 2023-29, Bank of Canada.
    8. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2021. "The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations," Discussion Papers 2021-13, Bank of Canada.
    9. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)," Technical Reports 123, Bank of Canada.
    10. Joel Wagner & Tudor Schlanger & Yang Zhang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality," Discussion Papers 2022-4, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2018. "Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 864-900, August.
    2. Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    4. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy," Staff Working Papers 16-31, Bank of Canada.
    5. Yin Germaschewski, 2022. "House price, credit supply, and government policy in China," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 971-1026, May.
    6. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2022. "How well do DSGE models with real estate and collateral constraints fit the data?," BCL working papers 168, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    9. Kolasa Marcin, 2021. "On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 281-307, January.
    10. Fang‐Shuo Chang & Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Po‐Yuan Wang, 2020. "Politics and the UK's monetary policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(5), pages 486-522, November.
    11. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    12. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    13. Anna Grodecka, 2020. "On the Effectiveness of Loan‐to‐Value Regulation in a Multiconstraint Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1231-1270, August.
    14. Gebauer, Stefan & Mazelis, Falk, 2023. "Macroprudential regulation and leakage to the shadow banking sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Miguel Molico & Ben Tomlin, 2015. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research," Discussion Papers 15-7, Bank of Canada.
    16. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    17. William Gatt, 2022. "MEDSEA-FIN: an estimated DSGE model with housing and financial frictions for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    18. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Richard McManus & F Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Fiscal consolidations and distributional effects: which form of fiscal austerity is least harmful?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 317-349.
    20. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models; Housing; Interest rates; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.