IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aze/wpaper/1607.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Inflation in Azerbaijan

Author

Listed:
  • Vugar Rahimov

    (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)

  • Shaig Adigozalov

    (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)

  • Fuad Mammadov

    (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)

Abstract

This paper assesses the main determinants of inflation in Azerbaijan during 2003-2015 years. Using quarterly data on CPI, trade partner’s CPI, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), money supply (M2), real non-oil gross domestic product (NGDP) and credits we employ vector auto regression (VAR) analysis in order to conduct our study. Impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that inflation is mostly explained by foreign inflation, fiscal policy, exchange rate and own shocks. Whereas monetary policy and supply shocks do not play any essential role in explaining inflation. Among these variables inflation expectations, foreign inflation and monetary policy (credit variable) have quick effect on domestic headline inflation, whereas the effect of fiscal variable is relatively slower: it takes two quarters to fully reflect on prices. We also find that appreciation of exchange rate has deflationary effect on domestic inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Vugar Rahimov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov, 2016. "Determinants of Inflation in Azerbaijan," Working Papers 1607, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    • Handle: RePEc:aze:wpaper:1607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://uploads.cbar.az/assets/eab8c8c4d73082b4b2110955a.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    3. Cem Saatcioglu & Levent Korap, 2006. "Determinants of Turkish Inflation," Working Papers 2006/7, Turkish Economic Association.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    5. Maruška Vizek & Tanja Broz, 2009. "Modeling Inflation in Croatia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 87-98, November.
    6. Roberto Golinelli & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp09, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
    7. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar, 2012. "Currency substitution in an oil-rich CIS country: The case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 70701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar & Adigozalov, Shaig, 2014. "Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?," MPRA Paper 63515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nijat Guliyev, 2018. "The effects of external shocks on Azerbaijan economy," Working Papers 1802, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    2. Khatai Aliyev & Sugra Humbatova & Natig Hajiyev Gadim-Oglu, 2023. "How Oil Price Changes Affect Inflation in an Oil-Exporting Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2020. "Determinants of the Agricultural Exports in Azerbaijan," EconStor Preprints 226347, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomás Slacík, 2008. "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW.
    2. Ranjith Bandara, 2011. "The Determinants of Inflation in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 12(2), pages 271-286, September.
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    4. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Guerrero, Federico, 2006. "Does inflation cause poor long-term growth performance?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 72-89, January.
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Money demand and disinflation in selected CEECs during the accession to the EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1259-1267.
    7. Peter Henry & Diego Sasson, "undated". "Capital Market Integration and Wages," Discussion Papers 08-028, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Tai Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Impact Of Government Spending On Inflation In Asian Emerging Economies: Evidence From India, China, And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1171-1200, December.
    9. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    10. Baldacci, Emanuele & Hillman, Arye L. & Kojo, Naoko C., 2004. "Growth, governance, and fiscal policy transmission channels in low-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 517-549, September.
    11. Ulrich Eydam & Florian Leupold, 2023. "What is it good for? On the Inflationary Effects of Military Conflicts," CEPA Discussion Papers 65, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Rapetti, Martin & Palazzo, Gabriel & Waldman, Joaquin, 2023. "Planes de estabilización: Evidencia de América Latina [Stabilization plans: Evidence from Latin America]," MPRA Paper 118910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. BIKAI, J. Landry & BATOUMEN M., Hardit & FOSSOUO, Armand, 2016. "Determinants of inflation in CEMAC: the role of money," MPRA Paper 89111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    15. Nexhat Kryeziu & Esat Durguti, 2019. "The Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth: The Case of Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 01-09, January.
    16. Mijiyawa, Abdoul, 2008. "Inflation and Democracy in Former Extractive Colonies Analysis with a New Instrumental Variable," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 28, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    17. Ntita Ntita, Jean & Kazadi Ntita, François & Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu, 2017. "Determinants De L'Inflation Dans Les Pays De La Communaute Economique Et Monetaire De L'Afrique Centrale, (Cemac) [Determinants Of Inflation In Central African Economic And Monetary Community (Caem," MPRA Paper 92902, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2019.
    18. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2007. "Volatile public spending in a model of money and sustainable growth," Discussion Paper Series 2007_18, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2007.
    19. Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2010. "Inflation, volatile public spending, and endogenously sustained growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1893-1906, October.
    20. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer price index; inflation; determinants of inflation; historical decomposition; developing country; structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aze:wpaper:1607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbagvaz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.