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The Determinants of Inflation in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Ranjith Bandara

    (Department of Economics, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Email: ranbandara@gmail.com)

Abstract

A high and sustained economic growth in conjunction with low inflation is the central objective of macroeconomic policy formulation in both developed and developing countries. Further, studying inflationary processes is an important issue in the current scenario as it allows policy-makers to achieve monetary and economic targets. However, it is not an easy task, especially in developing coun-tries, where economic processes are highly unstable and volatile. The situation in Sri Lanka is not exceptional. Therefore, understanding the behaviour of inflation is vital for the policy-makers in macroeconomic management as Sri Lanka is currently moving into new era of economic development. This article investigates the determinants of inflation in Sri Lanka during 1993–2008, a period which was characterized by upward and downward trends in the economy. Vector auto-regressive (VAR) models were used to find out appropriate explanations for inflation with accompanied application of Granger Causality Tests. The overall findings of estimated VAR models imply that the money supply, exchange rate and the GDP have information which helps in exploring the behaviour of the inflation in Sri Lanka.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranjith Bandara, 2011. "The Determinants of Inflation in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 12(2), pages 271-286, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:12:y:2011:i:2:p:271-286
    DOI: 10.1177/139156141101200204
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL: E27; Sri Lanka; inflation; CCPI; vector autoregression model; macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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