IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/avg/wpaper/en11685.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effective development banking: loans or guarantees?

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo FERNANDEZ-ARIAS
  • Jiajun XU

Abstract

How should National Development Banks (NDBs) assess the cost-effectiveness of using loans and loan guarantees in order to choose the type of financial instrument most appropriate for each program? We find that the development impact per dollar of fiscal resource required by each instrument largely depends on the kind of market failure that the NDB program addresses. Broadly speaking, theory suggests that the failure of the market to carry out investment projects with high social return due to positive externalities calls for soft loans or subsidy grants to incentivize investors, while poor enforcement of loan repayment or shortcomings of the private financial system to bear risk would generally favor the use of loan guarantees to improve the profitability of private loans to borrowers deemed uncreditworthy.Agency costs in second-tier operations may justify first-tier operations with a larger scope for lending, including a role for contingent lending with equity participation to reduce the fiscal burden. This stylized benchmark provides a starting point to analyze NDBs’ rationales for instrument choice and assess whether actual financial frictions are sufficiently important to justify deviations from these guidelines.This Research Paper is published in the framework of the International Research Initiative on Public Development Banks working groups and released for the occasion of the 14th AFD International Research Conference on Development. It is part of the pilot research program “Realizing the Potential of Public Development Banks for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals”. This program was launched, along with the International Research Initiative on Public Development Banks (PDBs), by the Institute of New Structural Economics (INSE) at Peking University, and sponsored by the Agence française de développement (AFD), Ford Foundation and International Development Finance Club (IDFC).Have a look on the key findings for a quick overview of the research resultsSee the video pitch

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo FERNANDEZ-ARIAS & Jiajun XU, 2020. "Effective development banking: loans or guarantees?," Working Paper 2fcdfcfb-d113-44d8-9e02-6, Agence française de développement.
    • Handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:en11685
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.afd.fr/sites/afd/files/2020-11-11-34-53/effective-development-banking-loans-guarantees.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustavo Crespi & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Stein, 2014. "Giving Credit to Productivity," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Gustavo Crespi & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Stein (ed.), Rethinking Productive Development, chapter 6, pages 175-202, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Smart Development Banks," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 395-420, June.
    3. Gustavo Crespi & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Stein (ed.), 2014. "Rethinking Productive Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-39399-9.
    4. Kenneth J. Arrow & Robert C. Lind, 1974. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 3, pages 54-75, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Saul Lach & Zvika Neeman & Mark Schankerman, 2021. "Government Financing of R&D: A Mechanism Design Approach," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 238-272, August.
    6. repec:idb:brikps:7694 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Charles Sabel & Ernesto H. Stein & Alberto Trejos, 2016. "Two to Tango: Public-Private Collaboration for Productive Development Policies," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 94716, February.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 455-470.
    9. Bruce D. Smith & Michael J. Stutzer, 1989. "Credit Rationing and Government Loan Programs: A Welfare Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 177-193, June.
    10. Deborah Lucas, 2012. "Valuation of Government Policies and Projects," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 39-58, October.
    11. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
    12. Arping, Stefan & Lóránth, Gyöngyi & Morrison, Alan D., 2010. "Public initiatives to support entrepreneurs: Credit guarantees versus co-funding," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 26-35, April.
    13. Gustavo Crespi & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Stein, 2014. "Rethinking Productive Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Gustavo Crespi & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Stein (ed.), Rethinking Productive Development, chapter 1, pages 3-31, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Mr. Andrew M. Warner, 2013. "A Framework for Efficient Government Investment," IMF Working Papers 2013/058, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    16. Innes, Robert, 1991. "Investment and government intervention in credit markets when there is asymmetric information," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 347-381, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eduardo FERNANDEZ-ARIAS & Jiajun XU, 2020. "Pour une banque de développement efficace : prêts ou garanties ?," Working Paper 2fcdfcfb-d113-44d8-9e02-6, Agence française de développement.
    2. Anginer, Deniz & de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2011. "Risk absorption by the state: when is it good public policy ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5893, The World Bank.
    3. Anginer, Deniz & de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2014. "Risk-bearing by the state: When is it good public policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 76-86.
    4. Karel Janda, 2011. "Credit Guarantees and Subsidies when Lender has a Market Power," Working Papers IES 2011/18, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    5. Parker, Simon C, 2002. "Do Banks Ration Credit to New Enterprises? And Should Governments Intervene? President's Lecture Delivered at the Annual General Meeting of the Scottish Economic Society 4-5 September 2001," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 162-195, May.
    6. Karel Janda, 2011. "Credit Rationing and Public Support of Commercial Credit," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp436, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. Jeffrey M. Lacker, 1994. "Does adverse selection justify government intervention in loan markets?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 61-95.
    8. Uesugi, Iichiro & Sakai, Koji & Yamashiro, Guy M., 2010. "The Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 457-480, December.
    9. Horvath, Akos & Lang, Peter, 2021. "Do loan subsidies boost the real activity of small firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Iichiro Uesugi, 2008. "Efficiency of Credit Allocation and Effectiveness of Government Credit Guarantees: Evidence from Japanese Small Businesses," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    11. William G. Gale, 1990. "Collateral, Rationing, and Government Intervention in Credit Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 43-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Enrico Minelli & Salvatore Modica, 2009. "Credit Market Failures and Policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 11(3), pages 363-382, June.
    13. Karel Janda, 2008. "Which Government Interventions Are Good in Alleviating Credit Market Failures?," Working Papers IES 2008/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    14. Busetta, Giovanni & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "Mutual loan-guarantee societies in monopolistic credit markets with adverse selection," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-24.
    15. Li, Wenli, 2002. "Entrepreneurship and government subsidies: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1815-1844, September.
    16. Masatoshi Jinno, 2011. "Assimilation, Immigration, and the Welfare State," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(1), pages 46-63, March.
    17. Iichiro Uesugi & Koji Sakai & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2006. "Effectiveness of Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market," Discussion papers 06004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Soumaré, Issouf & Lai, Van Son, 2016. "An analysis of government loan guarantees and direct investment through public-private partnerships," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 508-519.
    19. Gong, Di & Xu, Jiajun & Yan, Jianye, 2023. "National development banks and loan contract terms: Evidence from syndicated loans," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    20. Ono, Arito & Uesugi, Iichiro & Yasuda, Yukihiro, 2013. "Are lending relationships beneficial or harmful for public credit guarantees? Evidence from Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee Program," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 151-167.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:en11685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AFD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.