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Deep Calibration of Interest Rates Model

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  • Mohamed Ben Alaya
  • Ahmed Kebaier
  • Djibril Sarr

Abstract

For any financial institution it is a necessity to be able to apprehend the behavior of interest rates. Despite the use of Deep Learning that is growing very fastly, due to many reasons (expertise, ease of use, ...) classic rates models such as CIR, or the Gaussian family are still being used widely. We propose to calibrate the five parameters of the G2++ model using Neural Networks. To achieve that, we construct synthetic data sets of parameters drawn uniformly from a reference set of parameters calibrated from the market. From those parameters, we compute Zero-Coupon and Forward rates and their covariances and correlations. Our first model is a Fully Connected Neural network and uses only covariances and correlations. We show that covariances are more suited to the problem than correlations. The second model is a Convulutional Neural Network using only Zero-Coupon rates with no transformation. The methods we propose perform very quickly (less than 0.3 seconds for 2 000 calibrations) and have low errors and good fitting.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ben Alaya & Ahmed Kebaier & Djibril Sarr, 2021. "Deep Calibration of Interest Rates Model," Papers 2110.15133, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2110.15133
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Vela, 2013. "Forecasting Latin-American yield curves: An artificial neural network approach," Borradores de Economia 10502, Banco de la Republica.
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    3. Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2019. "Interest rates calibration with a CIR model," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 370-387, September.
    4. Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2019. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Papers 1904.00745, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Daniel Vela, 2013. "Forecasting Latin-American yield curves: An artificial neural network approach," Borradores de Economia 761, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Young Shin Kim & Hyangju Kim & Jaehyung Choi, 2023. "Deep Calibration With Artificial Neural Network: A Performance Comparison on Option Pricing Models," Papers 2303.08760, arXiv.org.

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