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Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: evidence across advanced countries

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  • Dongwoo Kim
  • Young Jun Lee

Abstract

Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate effects on COVID-19 cases and deaths of two key elements of mass vaccination - time between doses and vaccine type. We find that new infections and deaths are both significantly negatively associated with the fraction of the population vaccinated with at least one dose. Conditional on first-dose coverage, an increased fraction with two doses appears to offer no further reductions in new cases and deaths. For vaccines from China, however, we find significant effects on both health outcomes only after two doses. Our results support a policy of extending the interval between first and second doses of vaccines developed in Europe and the US. As vaccination progresses, population mobility increases, which partially offsets the direct effects of vaccination. This suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions remain important to contain transmission as vaccination is rolled out.

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  • Dongwoo Kim & Young Jun Lee, 2021. "Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: evidence across advanced countries," Papers 2109.06453, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.06453
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    8. Toru Kitagawa & Guanyi Wang, 2020. "Who Should Get Vaccinated? Individualized Allocation of Vaccines Over SIR Network," Papers 2012.04055, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Chernozhukov, Victor & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Schrimpf, Paul, 2021. "Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 23-62.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2021. "When Reality Bites: Local Deaths and Vaccine Take-Up," GLO Discussion Paper Series 999, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    3. Eger, Jens & Kaplan, Lennart & Sternberg, Henrike, 2022. "How to reduce vaccination hesitancy? The relevance of evidence and its communicator," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 433, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Post-Print hal-04490900, HAL.
    5. Mario Coccia, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1353-1367, December.
    6. Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2023. "When reality bites: Local deaths and vaccine take-up," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2024. "Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: A Unified Causal Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 793-833, February.
    8. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04490900, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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