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Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: A Unified Causal Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Fırat Bilgel

    (MEF University)

  • Burhan Can Karahasan

    (Piri Reis University)

Abstract

This paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman’s model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2024. "Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: A Unified Causal Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 793-833, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:63:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-023-10359-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10359-6
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