IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/sdueko/2022_005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Gray Zone

Author

Listed:
  • Mellace, Giovanni

    (Department of Economics)

  • Crudu, Frederico

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena)

  • Di Stefano, Roberta

    (Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Tiezzi, Silvia

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena)

Abstract

On March 23, 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy declared a nation-wide lockdown. A month earlier, on February 23, the Italian government ordered its military police to seal the borders and declared a Red Zone around 10 municipalities of the province of Lodi and in Vo’ Euganeo, a small town in Padua province. On the same day, Confindustria Bergamo, the province’s industrial association, posted a video on social media against having a lockdown in the area of Bergamo and was supported by key business leaders and local administrators. Despite having a similar infection rate to the Red Zone municipalities, the government decided not to extend the Red Zone to the municipalities of Bergamo province with high infection rates. Bergamo later became one of the deadliest outbreaks of the first wave of the virus in the Western world. What would have happened had the Red Zone been extended to that area? We use the Synthetic Control Method to estimate the causal effect of (not) declaring a Red Zone in the Bergamo area on daily excess mortality. We find that about two-thirds of the reported deaths could have been avoided had the Italian government declared the area a Red Zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Mellace, Giovanni & Crudu, Frederico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2022. "The Gray Zone," Discussion Papers on Economics 5/2022, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2022_005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sdu.azureedge.net/-/media/files/om_sdu/institutter/ivoe/econ/dpe5_2022.pdf?rev=61e72b6ab95a4d56bca0c51aad8c78a4&hash=6B6983D77A01BE53F2DE74308756071D
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    2. Surya Singh & Mujaheed Shaikh & Katharina Hauck & Marisa Miraldo, 2021. "Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(12), pages 2021359118-, March.
    3. Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho, 2020. "Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 323-344.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    7. Chernozhukov, Victor & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Schrimpf, Paul, 2021. "Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 23-62.
    8. Seth Flaxman & Swapnil Mishra & Axel Gandy & H. Juliette T. Unwin & Thomas A. Mellan & Helen Coupland & Charles Whittaker & Harrison Zhu & Tresnia Berah & Jeffrey W. Eaton & Mélodie Monod & Azra C. Gh, 2020. "Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 257-261, August.
    9. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy [Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    2. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco, 2023. "The cost of waiting and the death toll in Italy during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Bonander, Carl & Ekman, Mats & Jakobsson, Niklas, 2022. "Vaccination nudges: A study of pre-booked COVID-19 vaccinations in Sweden," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    6. Philipp Breidenbach & Timo Mitze, 2022. "Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’ [Semiparametric difference-in-differences estimators]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 15-45.
    7. Victoria Baudisch & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2023. "Costly, but (Relatively) Ineffective? An Assessment of Germany’s Temporary VAT Rate Reduction During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Research Papers in Economics 2023-04, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    8. Wei Tian & Seojeong Lee & Valentyn Panchenko, 2023. "Synthetic Controls with Multiple Outcomes: Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion Papers 2023-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    9. Carl Bonander & Mats Ekman & Niklas Jakobsson, 2022. "Vaccination nudges: A study of pre-booked COVID-19 vaccinations in Sweden," Papers 2202.04931, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    10. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    11. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    12. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    13. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    14. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    15. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    16. Pavlik, Jamie Bologna & Jahan, Israt & Young, Andrew T., 2023. "Do longer constitutions corrupt?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Di, Wenhua & Pattison, Nathaniel, 2023. "Industry Specialization and Small Business Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    19. Kim, Dongwoo & Lee, Young Jun, 2022. "Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: Evidence across advanced countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Peter Backus & Thien Nguyen, 2021. "The Effect of the Sex Buyer Law on the Market for Sex, Sexual Health and Sexual Violence," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2106, Economics, The University of Manchester.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; causal impact; synthetic control method; Red Zone; Bergamo; non-pharmaceutical interventions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2022_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Astrid Holm Nielsen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/okioudk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.