IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2104.05204.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Fast Evidential Approach for Stock Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Tianxiang Zhan
  • Fuyuan Xiao

Abstract

Within the framework of evidence theory, the confidence functions of different information can be combined into a combined confidence function to solve uncertain problems. The Dempster combination rule is a classic method of fusing different information. This paper proposes a similar confidence function for the time point in the time series. The Dempster combination rule can be used to fuse the growth rate of the last time point, and finally a relatively accurate forecast data can be obtained. Stock price forecasting is a concern of economics. The stock price data is large in volume, and more accurate forecasts are required at the same time. The classic methods of time series, such as ARIMA, cannot balance forecasting efficiency and forecasting accuracy at the same time. In this paper, the fusion method of evidence theory is applied to stock price prediction. Evidence theory deals with the uncertainty of stock price prediction and improves the accuracy of prediction. At the same time, the fusion method of evidence theory has low time complexity and fast prediction processing speed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianxiang Zhan & Fuyuan Xiao, 2021. "A Fast Evidential Approach for Stock Forecasting," Papers 2104.05204, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2104.05204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2104.05204
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    2. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    3. Nesreen Ahmed & Amir Atiya & Neamat El Gayar & Hisham El-Shishiny, 2010. "An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 594-621.
    4. Peng, Xiaoyi & Zhao, Yi & Small, Michael, 2020. "Identification and prediction of bifurcation tipping points using complex networks based on quasi-isometric mapping," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    5. Rong Zhang & Baabak Ashuri & Yong Deng, 2017. "A novel method for forecasting time series based on fuzzy logic and visibility graph," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 11(4), pages 759-783, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiang Liu & Qingmiao Liu & Minhuan Wang, 2024. "Sustainable Decision-Making Enhancement: Trust and Linguistic-Enhanced Conflict Measurement in Evidence Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-25, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Yuntong & Xiao, Fuyuan, 2022. "A novel method for forecasting time series based on directed visibility graph and improved random walk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 594(C).
    2. Arnab Mitra & Arnav Jain & Avinash Kishore & Pravin Kumar, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Demand Forecasting Models for a Multi-Channel Retail Company: A Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Approach," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Hu, Yuntong & Xiao, Fuyuan, 2022. "An efficient forecasting method for time series based on visibility graph and multi-subgraph similarity," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Yuxin Zhang & Yifei Yang & Xiaosi Li & Zijing Yuan & Yuki Todo & Haichuan Yang, 2023. "A Dendritic Neuron Model Optimized by Meta-Heuristics with a Power-Law-Distributed Population Interaction Network for Financial Time-Series Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Simona Mikšíková & David Ulčák & František Kuda, 2022. "Analysis of Malfunctions in Selected Parking Systems in the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-10, February.
    6. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Hossein Yousefi & Mohammad Hasan Ghodusinejad & Armin Ghodrati, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Future Energy System Planning and Analysis for Hot Arid Areas of Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Dyna Heng & Anna Ivanova & Rodrigo Mariscal & Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan & Joyce Wong, 2016. "Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2016/081, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    10. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A quantitative measure of fitness for duty and work processes for human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 595-601.
    11. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    12. Guo-hua Ye & Mirxat Alim & Peng Guan & De-sheng Huang & Bao-sen Zhou & Wei Wu, 2021. "Improving the precision of modeling the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China with an ensemble machine learning approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-13, March.
    13. Ahmed Belhadjayed & Grégoire Loeper & Frédéric Abergel, 2016. "Forecasting Trends With Asset Prices," Post-Print hal-01512431, HAL.
    14. Karzan Mahdi Ghafour & Abdulqadir Rahomee Ahmed Aljanabi, 2023. "The role of forecasting in preventing supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a distributor-retailer perspective," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 780-793, June.
    15. Fieger, Peter & Rice, John, 2016. "Modelling Chinese Inbound Tourism Arrivals into Christchurch," MPRA Paper 75468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2006. "Forecasting daily time series using periodic unobserved components time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 885-903, November.
    17. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.
    18. Sprangers, Olivier & Schelter, Sebastian & de Rijke, Maarten, 2023. "Parameter-efficient deep probabilistic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 332-345.
    19. Kosuke Kawakami & Hirokazu Kobayashi & Kazuhide Nakata, 2021. "Seasonal Inventory Management Model for Raw Materials in Steel Industry," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 312-324, July.
    20. Xianbo Li, 2022. "Sequence Model and Prediction for Sustainable Enrollments in Chinese Universities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-25, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2104.05204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.