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Liquidation, Leverage and Optimal Margin in Bitcoin Futures Markets

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  • Zhiyong Cheng
  • Jun Deng
  • Tianyi Wang
  • Mei Yu

Abstract

Using the generalized extreme value theory to characterize tail distributions, we address liquidation, leverage, and optimal margins for bitcoin long and short futures positions. The empirical analysis of perpetual bitcoin futures on BitMEX shows that (1) daily forced liquidations to out- standing futures are substantial at 3.51%, and 1.89% for long and short; (2) investors got forced liquidation do trade aggressively with average leverage of 60X; and (3) exchanges should elevate current 1% margin requirement to 33% (3X leverage) for long and 20% (5X leverage) for short to reduce the daily margin call probability to 1%. Our results further suggest normality assumption on return significantly underestimates optimal margins. Policy implications are also discussed.

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  • Zhiyong Cheng & Jun Deng & Tianyi Wang & Mei Yu, 2021. "Liquidation, Leverage and Optimal Margin in Bitcoin Futures Markets," Papers 2102.04591, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2102.04591
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    1. Cotter, John, 2001. "Margin exceedences for European stock index futures using extreme value theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1475-1502, August.
    2. Carol Alexander & Jaehyuk Choi & Heungju Park & Sungbin Sohn, 2020. "BitMEX bitcoin derivatives: Price discovery, informational efficiency, and hedging effectiveness," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 23-43, January.
    3. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "The effects of margin changes on commodity futures markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 129-152.
    4. Jun Deng & Huifeng Pan & Shuyu Zhang & Bin Zou, 2020. "Minimum-variance hedging of Bitcoin inverse futures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(58), pages 6320-6337, December.
    5. Chaim, Pedro & Laurini, Márcio P., 2018. "Volatility and return jumps in bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 158-163.
    6. Hans Dewachter & Geert Gielens, 1999. "Setting futures margins: the extremes approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 173-181.
    7. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas & Sumawong, Anannit, 2019. "A parsimonious parametric model for generating margin requirements for futures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 31-43.
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