Assessing central counterparty margin coverage on futures contracts using GARCH models
AbstractThis study considers how the probability of exceeding central counterparty (CCP) initial margin levels can be estimated, in order to provide a timely and informative measure of risk coverage. Previous studies of CCP margining have largely focused on the unconditional distribution of returns, estimating margin coverage on a long-term average basis. The present study extends previous work by estimating conditional margin coverage using a GARCH (1,1) model, so that variations in coverage can be tracked over a much shorter time frame. The model is applied to estimating non-coverage probabilities for two heavily traded derivatives contracts, the Brent and FTSE 100 futures. To account for the well-documented fat-tailed characteristics of distributions of futures returns, several variants of the GARCH model are estimated. These assume that innovations are distributed according to either normal, Student t, extreme value or historical distributions. Backtesting is used to select the best performing distribution. During the sample period, margins are found to provide a coverage level generally in excess of 99%, over a one-day time horizon. It is noted, however, that the coverage probability implied by the model is likely to fall under more volatile market conditions; under these circumstances central counterparties will reset initial margin more frequently and call for margin intraday.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 287.
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1997.
"Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity: What Have We Learned Since The Crash?,"
FMG Special Papers
sp97, Financial Markets Group.
- Paul Kupiec, 1998. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity: What Have We Learned Since the Crash?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 231-255, June.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1997. "Margin requirements, volatility, and market integrity: what have we learned since the crash?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Cotter, John, 2001.
"Margin exceedences for European stock index futures using extreme value theory,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1475-1502, August.
- Cotter, John, 2000. "Margin Exceedences for European Stock Index Futures using Extreme Value Theory," MPRA Paper 3534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
- Olivier V. Pictet & Michel M. Dacorogna & Ulrich A. Muller, 1996. "Hill, Bootstrap and Jackknife Estimators for Heavy Tails," Working Papers 1996-12-10, Olsen and Associates.
- Giovanni Barone-Adesi & Kostas Giannopoulos & Les Vosper, 2002. "Backtesting Derivative Portfolios with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS)," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 31-58.
- Hans Dewachter & Geert Gielens, 1999. "Setting futures margins: the extremes approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 173-181.
- Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-16, April.
- Drees, Holger & Kaufmann, Edgar, 1998. "Selecting the optimal sample fraction in univariate extreme value estimation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 149-172, July.
- Danielsson, Jon & Morimoto, Yuji, 2000. "Forecasting Extreme Financial Risk: A Critical Analysis of Practical Methods for the Japanese Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 25-48, December.
- Broussard, John Paul, 2001. "Extreme-value and margin setting with and without price limits," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 365-385.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & John Paul Broussard & Teppo Martikainen & Vesa Puttonen, 1997. "Prudent Margin Levels in the Finnish Stock Index Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(8), pages 1177-1188, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.