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Quantile Convolutional Neural Networks for Value at Risk Forecasting

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  • G'abor Petneh'azi

Abstract

This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but arbitrary quantiles of the distribution, and thus allows them to be applied to VaR-forecasting. The proposed model can learn from the price history of different assets, and it seems to produce fairly accurate forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • G'abor Petneh'azi, 2019. "Quantile Convolutional Neural Networks for Value at Risk Forecasting," Papers 1908.07978, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1908.07978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    2. White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Manganelli, Simone, 2015. "VAR for VaR: Measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 169-188.
    3. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2002. "Portfolio Value‐at‐Risk with Heavy‐Tailed Risk Factors," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 239-269, July.
    4. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    5. Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Risk and Liquidity," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199546367.
    6. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Value at Risk by Quantile Regression," NBER Working Papers 7341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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