IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2011i4p15-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt Ceiling and External Debt Sustainability in Romania: A Quantile Autoregression Model

Author

Listed:
  • Boengiu, Tudor

    (Academy of Economic Studies)

  • Morar Triandafil, Cristina

    (University of Finance and Banking)

  • Morar Triandafil, Adrian

    (Romanian Academy)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the external debt sustainability using a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. QAR is a new type of econometric models used to separate periods of nonstationarity from the stationarity ones. This kind of model allows us to identify various trajectories of external debt that are compatible with indebtness sustainability. We use such trajectories to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of external debt that does not jeopardize long-run indebtness sustainability. We make out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling and we present the debt ceiling as a “debt-warning system” which could be used by policy makers interested in keeping the external debt on a sustainable path. We illustrate the applicability of such econometric tool using Romanian data. Also, we used the R programming language for part of our statistical computing and graphics presented in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Boengiu, Tudor & Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "Debt Ceiling and External Debt Sustainability in Romania: A Quantile Autoregression Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 15-29, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:15-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p15-29.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    2. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra, 2005. "The asymmetric behavior of the U.S. public debt," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 593, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Charles Wyplosz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives," IHEID Working Papers 03-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, January.
    5. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    7. MARINESCU Ada Cristina & ALBU Lucian-Liviu, 2018. "A Model To Simulate The Dynamics Of Public Debt Sustainability In Eu," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(1), pages 90-96, December.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1148-1171, October.
    9. Efstathios Paparoditis & Dimitris N. Politis, 2003. "Residual-Based Block Bootstrap for Unit Root Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 813-855, May.
    10. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 2000. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: an Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May.
    11. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    12. Lima, Luiz Renato & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Sampaio, Raquel M.B., 2008. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 313-335, June.
    13. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mei-Yin Lin, 2014. "The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 31-42, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2018. "Estimating inflation persistence by quantile autoregression with quantile-specific unit roots," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 407-430.
    2. Lima, Luiz Renato & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Sampaio, Raquel M.B., 2008. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 313-335, June.
    3. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra, 2005. "The asymmetric behavior of the U.S. public debt," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 593, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2015. "Local Unit Root and Inflationary Inertia in Brazil," Working Papers Series 406, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Lee, Cheng-Feng & Hu, Te-Chung & Li, Ping-Cheng & Tsong, Ching-Chuan, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates: Evidence from the quantile covariate unit root test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-84.
    6. Cho, Jin Seo & Kim, Tae-hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 281-300.
    7. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2008. "Dynamic quantile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-205, November.
    8. Qu, Zhongjun, 2008. "Testing for structural change in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 170-184, September.
    9. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
    10. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Das, Narasingha & Alam, G.M. Monirul & Khan, Uzma & Haseeb, Mohammad & Hossain, Md. Emran, 2023. "Revisiting the carbon pollution-inhibiting policies in the USA using the quantile ARDL methodology: What roles can clean energy and globalization play?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 710-721.
    11. Shi, Peng & Frees, Edward W., 2010. "Long-tail longitudinal modeling of insurance company expenses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 303-314, December.
    12. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2007. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Chowdhury, Biplob & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Dungey, Mardi, 2018. "Quantile relationships between standard, diffusion and jump betas across Japanese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-47.
    14. Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Semi-parametric modelling of temperature records," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 361-383, May.
    15. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources," Working Papers hal-01548710, HAL.
    16. Bruzda, Joanna, 2019. "Quantile smoothing in supply chain and logistics forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 122-139.
    17. Yunmi Kim & Lijuan Huo & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2020. "Dealing with Markov-Switching Parameters in Quantile Regression Models," Working papers 2020rwp-166, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    18. Lin, Wen-Yuan & Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Black swan events in China's stock markets: Intraday price behaviors on days of volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 395-411.
    19. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2009. "Unit root quantile autoregression testing using covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 165-178, October.
    20. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external debt; quantile autoregression; local sustainability; global sustainability; gross domestic product;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:15-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.