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Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project

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  • Bent Flyvbjerg
  • Alexander Budzier

Abstract

This report was commissioned by the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project to provide the national and international context in which the Muskrat Falls Project took place. The Commission asked for the report to cover three specific topics of questions: (1) What is the national and international context of the Muskrat Falls Project with regards to cost overrun and schedule overrun? (What are the typical cost and schedule overruns of hydro-electric dam projects? How do hydro-electric dams compare to other capital investment projects? How do Canadian projects compare to other countries?), (2) What are the causes and root causes of cost and schedule overruns? (3) What are recommendations, based on international experience and research into capital investment projects, to prevent cost and schedule overruns in hydro-electric dam projects and other capital investment projects? Keywords: Hydroelectric Dams, Megaprojects, Cost Overrun, Schedule Overrun, Optimism Bias, Strategic Misrepresentation, Infrastructure, Capital Investment Projects, Canada, Muskrat Falls

Suggested Citation

  • Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier, 2019. "Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project," Papers 1901.03698, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1901.03698
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," Papers 1603.01416, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2016. "The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance: A Test of Hirschman’s Hiding Hand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 176-189.
    4. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View," Papers 1302.2544, arXiv.org.
    5. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2014. "What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview," Papers 1409.0003, arXiv.org.
    6. Ansar, Atif & Flyvbjerg, Bent & Budzier, Alexander & Lunn, Daniel, 2014. "Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hydroelectric dams; megaprojects; cost overrun; schedule overrun; optimism bias; strategic misrepresentation; infrastructure; capital investment projects; canada; muskrat falls;
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