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Toward Economics as a New Complex System

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  • Taisei Kaizoji

Abstract

The 2015 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller for their contributions to the empirical analysis of asset prices. Eugene Fama [1] is an advocate of the efficient market hypothesis. The efficient market hypothesis assumes that asset price is determined by using all available information and only reacts to new information not incorporated into the fundamentals. Thus, the movement of stock prices is unpredictable. Robert Shiller [2] has been studying the existence of irrational bubbles, which are defined as the long term deviations of asset price from the fundamentals. This drives us to the unsettled question of how the market actually works. In this paper, I look back at the development of economics and consider the direction in which we should move in order to truly understand the workings of an economic society.

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  • Taisei Kaizoji, 2016. "Toward Economics as a New Complex System," Papers 1611.05280, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1611.05280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2009. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521741866.
    2. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
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    6. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1974. "General Economic Equilibrium: Purpose, Analytic Techniques, Collective Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 253-272, June.
    7. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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