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Multifractal modeling of short-term interest rates

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  • M. Rypdal
  • O. L{o}vsletten

Abstract

We propose a multifractal model for short-term interest rates. The model is a version of the Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM), which incorporates the well-known level effect observed in interest rates. Unlike previously suggested models, the level-MSM model captures the power-law scaling of the structure functions and the slowly decaying dependency in the absolute value of returns. We apply the model to the Norwegian Interbank Offered Rate with three months maturity (NIBORM3) and the U.S. Treasury Bill with three months maturity (TBM3). The performance of the model is compared to level-GARCH models, level-EGARCH models and jump-diffusions. For the TBM3 data the multifractal out-performs all the alternatives considered.

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  • M. Rypdal & O. L{o}vsletten, 2011. "Multifractal modeling of short-term interest rates," Papers 1111.5265, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1111.5265
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rypdal, Martin & Sirnes, Espen & Løvsletten, Ola & Rypdal, Kristoffer, 2013. "Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(16), pages 3335-3343.

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