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What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Rüdiger Bachmann

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • David Baqaee

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Christian Bayer

    (University of Bonn)

  • Moritz Kuhn

    (University of Bonn)

  • Andreas Löschel

    (Ruhr University Bochum)

  • Benjamin Moll

    (London School of Economics)

  • Andreas Peichl

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research, University of Munich)

  • Karen Pittel

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research, University of Munich)

  • Moritz Schularick

    (Sciences Po Paris, University of Bonn)

Abstract

This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic was 4.5%).

Suggested Citation

  • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 028, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:028
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
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    3. Neidell, Matthew & Uchida, Shinsuke & Veronesi, Marcella, 2019. "Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident," IZA Discussion Papers 12687, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2012. "Interfuel Substitution and Energy Use in the U.K. Manufacturing Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    5. Maximilian Auffhammer & Edward Rubin, 2018. "Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills," NBER Working Papers 24295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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