IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v154y2023ics0014292123000570.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy shortages and aggregate demand: Output loss and unequal burden from HANK

Author

Listed:
  • Pieroni, Valerio

Abstract

I study the effects of a reduction in energy supply using a quantitative Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) model with energy consumption by households and firms. I find that changes in aggregate demand due to an increase in energy prices and labor market adjustments amplify the macroeconomic effects of the energy shock, but these effects remain manageable. In the model a 10% reduction in the energy supply leads to a Gross National Income (GNI) loss in range between 0.8% and 2%. The economic burden is highly nonlinear across the income distribution: most households face similar and relatively contained costs, while low-income households bear the heaviest burden. I show that monetary and fiscal policy can mitigate the economic costs and the unequal effects of energy shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • Pieroni, Valerio, 2023. "Energy shortages and aggregate demand: Output loss and unequal burden from HANK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:154:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123000570
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104428
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292123000570
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104428?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub & Adrien Auclert, 2017. "The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross," 2017 Meeting Papers 1587, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Felipe Alves & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "A Further Look at the Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in HANK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 521-559, December.
    3. Achdou, Yves & Han, Jiequn & Lasry, Jean Michel & Lions, Pierre Louis & Moll, Ben, 2022. "Income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics: a continuous-time approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    5. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Hafstead, Marc A.C. & Kim, GyuRim & Long, Xianling, 2019. "Impacts of a carbon tax across US household income groups: What are the equity-efficiency trade-offs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 44-64.
    6. Kurt Mitman & Iourii Manovskii & Marcus Hagedorn, 2017. "The Fiscal Multiplier," 2017 Meeting Papers 1383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2014. "The Distribution of Wealth and the MPC: Implications of New European Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 107-111, May.
    8. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    9. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881469, HAL.
    10. Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2012. "Interfuel Substitution and Energy Use in the U.K. Manufacturing Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    11. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Christopher Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2017. "The distribution of wealth and the marginal propensity to consume," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), pages 977-1020, November.
    13. Ralph Luetticke, 2021. "Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, April.
    14. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lionse & Benjamin Moll, 2022. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach [On the Existence and Uniqueness of Stationary Equilibrium in Bewley Economies with Production]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 45-86.
    15. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    16. Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Martin Souchier & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel," NBER Working Papers 28872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Maximilian Auffhammer & Edward Rubin, 2018. "Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills," NBER Working Papers 24295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alkis Blanz & Ulrich Eydam & Maik Heinemann & Matthias Kalkuhl & Nikolaj Moretti, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and Energy Price Shocks," CEPA Discussion Papers 70, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "Was wäre wenn? Die Auswirkungen einer harten Abkopplung von China auf die deutsche Wirtschaft," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kopiec, Paweł, 2022. "The government spending multiplier in the Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Dmitriy Sergeyev & Chen Lian & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2023. "The Economics of Financial Stress," NBER Working Papers 31285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kopiec, Paweł, 2020. "Employment prospects and the propagation of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Albertini, Julien & Auray, Stéphane & Bouakez, Hafedh & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2021. "Taking off into the wind: Unemployment risk and state-Dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 990-1007.
    5. Gizem Koşar & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph & David Wiczer, 2023. "Stimulus through Insurance: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt," Staff Reports 1065, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Kopiec, Pawel, 2019. "Household Heterogeneity and the Value of Government Spending Multiplier: an Analytical Characterization," MPRA Paper 93499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Oskolkov, Aleksei, 2023. "Exchange rate policy and heterogeneity in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    9. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke, 2019. "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," NBER Working Papers 32219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    12. Frederick Ploeg, 2023. "Fiscal Costs of Climate Policies: Role of Tax, Political, and Behavioural Distortions," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(2), pages 119-137, June.
    13. Stéphane Dupraz, 2023. "The Dynamic IS Curve when there is both Investment and Savings," Working papers 905, Banque de France.
    14. Arrigoni, Simone & Boyd, Laura & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2022. "Household Economic Resilience," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 88-113, October.
    15. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Yongseung Jung, 2022. "Inspecting Business Cycles in Korea through the Lens of the TANK Model," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 38, pages 109-139.
    17. Paweł Kopiec, 2023. "Frictional product market, supply chains and the impact of government expenditures on private consumption," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(3), pages 285-308.
    18. Hagedorn, Marcus & Luo, Jinfeng & Manovskii, Iourii & Mitman, Kurt, 2019. "Forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-23.
    19. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    20. Asger Lau Andersen & Niels Johannesen & Mia Jørgensen & José-Luis Peydró, 2020. "Monetary policy and inequality," Economics Working Papers 1761, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous agents; New keynesian; Energy; Fiscal policy; Inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:154:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123000570. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.