Household Economic Resilience

How are households coping with high inflation in 2022? We show that, while many households remain resilient, fragilities exist. Increases in food and energy prices alongside rising rents have a much greater impact on household finances than interest rate increases on variable rate mortgages. This reflects the smaller share of mortgage interest in household expenditure relative to food and energy, among other factors. In a ‘severe’ scenario involving further price increases for essentials, our analysis shows that households in a more precarious financial position with limited savings buffers (around 15 per cent of all households) would see 44 per cent of their disposable income used for spending on just this limited set of items. Targeted, temporary supports for more exposed households will support consumption of essential goods and services until price rises abate and/or real incomes rise.