This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2001

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Irwin, Scott H.
Martines-Filho, Joao
Good, Darrel L.

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. The results for 1995-2000 were released in earlier AgMAS research reports, while results for the 2001 crop year are new. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict “real-world” marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as well as interest opportunity costs, are charged to postharvest sales, iii) brokerage costs are subtracted for all futures and options transactions and iv) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing loan recommendations made by advisory programs are followed wherever feasible. Based on these and other assumptions, the net price received by a subscriber to market advisory programs is calculated for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. Market and farmer benchmarks are developed for the performance evaluations. Two market benchmarks are specified in order to test the fragility of performance results to changing benchmark assumptions. The 24-month market benchmark averages market prices for the entire 24-month marketing window. The 20-month market benchmark is computed in a similar fashion, except the first four months of the marketing window are omitted. The farmer benchmark is based upon the USDA average price received series for corn and soybeans in Illinois. The same assumptions applied to advisory program track records are used when computing the market and farmer benchmarks. Four basic indicators of performance are applied to advisory program prices and revenues over 1995-2001. The results provide limited evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. In contrast, more evidence exists that advisory programs as a group outperform the farmer benchmark, even after taking risk into account. Little evidence is found that advisory programs with superior performance can be usefully selected based on past performance. The results raise the intriguing possibility that even though advisory services do not appear to “beat the market,” they nonetheless provide an opportunity for farmers to improve marketing performance because farmers under-perform the market. Mirroring debates about stock investing, the relevant issue is whether farmers can most effectively improve marketing performance by pursuing “active” strategies, like those recommended by advisory services, or “passive” strategies, which involve routinely spreading sales across the marketing window.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37510
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics in its series AgMAS Project Research Reports with number 37510.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:uiucrr:37510

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 326 Mumford Hall, MC-710, 1301 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, Illinois, 61801
Phone: (217) 333-1810
Fax: (217) 333-5538
Email:
Web page: http://www.ace.uiuc.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (AgEcon Search).

Related research
Keywords: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayenga, Marvin L., 2001. "On the Pitfalls of Multi-Year Rollover Hedges: The Case of Hedge-to-Arrive Contracts," Staff General Research Papers 1965, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2004. "The Cost Of Forward Contracting," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20409, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  3. Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2001. "Implications of Behavioral Finance for Farmer Marketing Strategy Recommendation," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18952, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  4. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ibbotson, Roger G, 1999. "Offshore Hedge Funds: Survival and Performance, 1989-95," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 91-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jackson, Thomas E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 1998. "1996 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services For Corn And Soybeans," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14787, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1997. "Cost of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada 35749, Western Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Irwin, Scott H., 2002. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2000," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14784, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Jackson, Thomas E., 1998. "Development Of A Market Benchmark Price For Agmas Performance Evaluations," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14783, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Colino, Evelyn V. & Cabrini, Silvina M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao, 2004. "Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn in 2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37493, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Peterson, Hikaru H. & Tomek, William G., 2003. "How Much Of Commodity Price Behavior Can A Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain?," Staff Papers 30712, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Jirik, Mark A. & Martines-Filho, Joao, 2000. "The 1995 Through 1998 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services For Wheat," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14777, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Stark, Brian G. & Cabrini, Silvina M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao, 2003. "Portfolios Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification Is Enough?," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14774, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Isengildina, Olga & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37489, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Colino, Evelyn V. & Cabrini, Silvina M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Joao, Martines-Filho, 2004. "Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans in 2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37507, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Hirshleifer, David, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 5300, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2001. "The Role Of Market Advisory Services In Crop Marketing And Risk Management: A Preliminary Report Of Survey Results," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14772, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April. [Downloadable!]
  19. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1997. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Finance 9711004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  20. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Are Some Mutual Fund Managers Better Than Others? Cross-Sectional Patterns in Behavior and Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 875-899, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Andrew Metrick, 1998. "Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters," NBER Working Papers 6648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kidd, Willis V. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2002. "Can Structural Change Explain Changes In Returns To Technical Analysis?," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19066, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. Klumpp, Joni M. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2005. "The Impact of Marketing Strategy Information on the Producer's Selling Decision," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19036, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  3. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2001: A Non-Technical Summary," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14770, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Cabrini, Silvina M. & Stark, Brian G. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao, 2005. "Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification is Enough?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kidd, Willis V. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2002. "Can Structural Change Explain The Decrease In Returns To Technical Analysis?," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19059, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  7. Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Performance Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22256, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Cabrini, Silvina M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2005. "Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19037, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers' Marketing Decisions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(02), August. [Downloadable!]
  10. Franken, Jason R.V. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Do Interest Rates Explain Disaggregate Commodity Price Growth?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21319, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  11. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "The Impact Of Marketing Advisory Service Recommendations On Producers' Marketing Decisions," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20389, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors can create their own profile with links to their works on the RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.